摘要
基于近些年德州市平原县粮食和耕地变化情况,采用土地资源承载指数(LCCI)模型分析了其城镇人口承载力现状,运用逻辑斯蒂模型和三次指数平滑预测模型预测2016—2020年平原县粮食产量、耕地面积和土地资源城镇人口承载力。研究表明:平原县土地资源城镇人口承载力处于富富有余状态,土地资源城镇承载指数(LCCI)长期处在0.08以下,粮食自给率较高,具有较大的发展空间。预测到2020年土地承载力指数达到0.13,富富有余状态略有减弱。
In this paper,the land resource carrying capacity index(LCCI)model was used to analyze the urban population carrying capacity,then the logistic model and three exponential smoothing prediction model were used to predict the bearing capacity,grain production,cultivated land and land resources in urban population of2016-2020in Pingyuan County.Research showed that population bearing capacity of land resources in urban plain county is surplus,urban land resources carrying capacity index is below0.08in the long-term,grain self-sufficiency rate is high,with a larger space for development.It is predicted that the land carrying capacity index will reach0.13in2020,but the surplus state will be slightly weakened.In the final part of the paper,the author has proposed several solutions and suggestions.
作者
白晨
尹向来
张晓青
Bai Chen;Yin Xianglai;Zhang Xiaoqing(School of Geographic and Environmental, Shandong Normal University, Jinan Shandong 250358, China)
出处
《中国环境管理干部学院学报》
CAS
2017年第5期38-41,共4页
Journal of Environmental Management College of China
基金
山东省自然科学基金项目:<山东西部经济隆起带承接产业转移与新型城镇化的耦合机制及调控研究>(ZR2014DM001)
关键词
粮食
耕地
土地资源城镇人口承载力
平原县
commissariat
farmland
land carrying capacity of urban
Pingyuan County
