摘要
从不同气候带地区和不同季节2个方面,对2012年3月—2013年2月24 h预报时效的ECMWF和T639模式2 m气温预报产品进行了日最高、最低气温的预报准确率、平均绝对误差研究。结果表明,2个数值模式2 m日最高、最低气温2℃误差的预报准确率明显比1℃误差的预报准确率高。2 m日最高气温预报准确率,不同气候带地区均是ECMWF模式高于T639模式;ECMWF模式不同季节预报准确率从高到低依次为秋季、冬季、夏季、春季,T639模式不同季节预报准确率从高到低依次为秋季、夏季、冬季、春季。2 m日最低气温预报准确率,北亚热带和中亚热带地区均是T639模式高于ECMWF模式,南亚热带地区ECMWF模式高于T639模式;2个数值模式不同季节预报准确率趋势相同,从高到低依次为夏季、秋季、春季、冬季。
From the aspects of different climatic zones and different seasons,the forecast accuracy and the average absolute error of daily maximum and minimum temperature of ECMWF and T639 model 2 m temperature forecast products with the forecast aging of 24 h from March 2012 to February 2013 was calculated.The results showed that the forecast accuracy of 2℃error was significantly higher than that of the 1℃error in the 2 m daily maximum and minimum temperature of two numerical model.For the forecast accuracy of 2 m daily maximum temperature,ECMWF model was higher than T639 model under the different climatic regions;the forecast accuracy of ECMWF model from high to low in turn for autumn,winter,summer,spring in different seasons;the forecast accuracy of T639 model from high to low in turn for autumn,summer,winter,spring in different seasons.For the forecast accuracy of 2 m daily minimum temperature,the forecast accuracy of T639 model was higher than ECMWF model under the regions of northern subtropics and mid-subtropics;the forecast accuracy of ECMWF model was higher than T639 model under the regions of south subtropics;The forecast accuracy of two numerical models presented same trends from high to low in turn for summer,autumn,spring,winter in different seasons.
作者
邹阳
王将
ZOU Yang;WANG Jiang (Kunming City Meteorological Bureau,Kunming,Yunnan 650034)
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
2018年第10期140-144,共5页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
基金
昆明市气象局科技创新项目(昆气科字[2013]03)
关键词
2m气温
预报准确率
绝对误差
检验
2m temperature
Forecast accuracy
Absolute error
Evaluation
