摘要
内涝灾害对城市居民的生产和生活损失巨大,内涝灾害条件下居民的避难需求以及对避难场所选择行为的影响因素分析是避难场所规划和防灾减灾方案制订的重要依据。本文采用SP(Stated Preference)调查法对牡丹江市西安区沿江地段居民进行问卷调查,并分析其在突发内涝灾害条件下疏散避难决策行为的特性,以交叉列联和主成分分析法识别出影响居民避难决策行为的影响因素,并以多项排序离散选择模型建立疏散避难场所选择的决策行为模式,其分析结果有助于规划师更好地了解避难场所选择需求与决策行为,完善避难场所系统规划方法。
The impact of waterlogging disaster on the loss of production and life of urban residents is huge.The demand of residents'refuge and the influencing factors on the choice behavior of shelter are the important basis for the formulation of shelter planning and disaster prevention and mitigation plans.This paper uses SP(Stated Preference)survey to investigate the residents in riverside of Xi'an district in Mudanjiang City,and analyzes the characteristics of evacuation and refuge decision-making under the conditions of sudden waterlogging disaster.Cross-concatenated and principal component analysis are applied to identify the factors influencing the decision-making behavior of residents asylum and setting up the decision-making behavior mode of evacuation shelter with a number of ordered discrete choice models.The analysis results help the planner to better understand the choice and decision-making behavior of evacuation sites and improve the evacuation site system planning method.
作者
赵蕾
徐苏宁
陈玉珠
Zhao Lei;Xu Suning;Chen Yuzhu
出处
《城市建筑》
2018年第5期12-15,共4页
Urbanism and Architecture
关键词
内涝灾害
避难场所
选择行为
交叉列联
主成分
多项排序Logit模型
waterlogging disasters
place of refuge
choosing behavior
cross-connect
main components
multiple ordering logit model
