摘要
河流水位流量曲线拟合是延长水文序列的一个重要计算内容。为比较不同方法拟合效果,以便能够快速找到一种适合不同河流的水位流量曲线方程,采用基于最小二乘法的一次、二次和三次多项式回归方程法和经验公式法进行水位流量曲线拟合。比较了四种拟合方程的拟合效果,并从误差角度分析了导致不同拟合效果的原因。结果表明:四种拟合方程的回归系数分别为0.9440、0.9819、0.9831、0.9830。三次拟合方程的测量误差影响的迅速降低导致其拟合效果较好于一次和二次。三次拟合方程的总误差增长速度较快导致其回归系数大于经验公式法,但残差平方和却显著小于经验公式法。相比多项式拟合方法,经验公式法具有计算误差小,拟合效果好,无需多次重复拟合的特点。
The curve simulation of river water level and flow is an important calculation content of extending hydrological sequence.In order to compare the results of different methods and quickly search the water level and flow curve equations to match different rivers,the first-order,second-order and third-order polynomials regression equation and empirical formula method were used to simulate the water level and flow curve equations of different rivers.The fitting effects of the four equations are compared,and the reasons leading to different fitting effects are analyzed from the angle of error.The results show that the regression coefficients of the four equations are 0.9440、0.9819、0.9831 and 0.9830,respectively.The rapid reduction of the influence of the measurement error of the cubic fitting equation results in better effct than the first and the second equations.The total error of the cubic fitting equation is faster than that of empirical formula,but the error square sum is significantly smaller than that of the empirical formula method.Compared with the polynomial,empirical formula method has the advantages of small calculation error,good simulation effect and no need of repeated repetition.
作者
郑毅
杨延梅
蒋进元
ZHENG Yi;YANG Yan-mei;JIANG Jin-yuan(Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China;Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences,Beijing 100012,China)
出处
《南水北调与水利科技》
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第A02期25-28,共4页
South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology
关键词
水位流量曲线
最小二乘法
多项式
经验公式法
拟合
curve fitting of river level and flow
least square method
polynomials
empirical formula method
simulation
