摘要
随着经济全球化推动亚太经济不断向纵深发展,亚太互联经济已成为全球性议题。文章运用国际政治经济学的分析框架,从全球价值链的视角分析认为,中国等主要经济体已经成为亚太价值链和国际秩序重构的"朱格诺",一些曾经贫困的东南亚国家正开启新一轮的工业化,并引致亚太互联经济格局的演变。与此同时,当前逆全球化浪潮已经通过国际秩序重构影响了亚太互联经济的发展;亚太国家政治经济博弈、区域一体化碎片化的整合也加剧了亚太区域经济构架变动;美国亚太战略转变和"新重商主义"给亚太互联经济带来了不确定性并形成了阻力。文章还利用投入产出方法模拟了中美贸易冲突的严重后果。中国的崛起为亚太互联经济发展做出了积极贡献,也为其指明了发展方向。
As processes of globalization continue to advance the development of the Asia Pacific economy,Asia Pacific interconnected economy has become a global topic of interest.This article employs a framework of analysis based on international political economy to argue that China and some major economies have become the region’s“juggernaut”when they come to the development of the Asia Pacific value chain and the international order.Previously impoverished Southeast Asian countries are now initiating a new era of industrialization,and this has prompted the evolution of interconnected economy in the region.At the same time,processes of anti-globalization have also reverberated through the international system,and exerted influence on the development of interconnected economy in the Asia Pacific region.Taken together,political and economic struggles between Asia Pacific countries and the fragmentation of processes of regional integration have intensified the pace of changes in regional economic structures.Changes in America’s Asia Pacific strategy and neo-mercantilism have also brought considerable uncertainties to interconnected economy in the Asia Pacific region,bringing further obstacles to the regional economy.This article also uses input-output analysis to simulate the disastrous impacts of the US-China trade conflict,while also attempting to identify prospective developmental trajectories and policy proposals for the future of Asia Pacific interconnected economy.
作者
马涛
盛斌
Ma Tao;Sheng Bin
出处
《当代亚太》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第4期86-112,158,159,共29页
Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies
基金
本文得到国家自然科学基金应急管理项目“贸易增加值核算体系的演进及影响:国际比较研究”(项目编号:71441013)、国家社科基金青年项目“低碳经济下金砖国家产业发展与经济增长模式研究”(项目编号:13CGJ027)和高校人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“亚太区域合作与‘一带一路’倡议相互促进的路径与策略研究”(项目编号:ZX20170221)的资助,同时也是中国社会科学院创新工程项目“经济全球化新趋势与中国全面开放新格局研究”的阶段性研究成果。
关键词
逆全球化
亚太互联经济
国际秩序重构
全球价值链
De-globalization
Asia Pacific Interconnected Economy
Reconstitution of the International Order
Global Value Chains
