摘要
通过收集与中国道路货运行业经济运行相关的月度指标,本文采用时差相关分析方法筛选出道路货运行业经济运行的先行指标、一致指标和滞后指标,基于合成指数模型构建道路货运行业周期监测指数,依据其波动态势分析中国道路货运行业的周期性波动特征,并验证其与宏观经济周期性波动的先行关系。研究结果表明:2005～2016年,中国道路货运行业经历了4次较为明显的上升期和下降期,道路货运行业与宏观经济具有基本一致的变化趋势,但是波动幅度不同,道路货运的波动幅度比宏观经济景气指数的波动幅度更加明显。道路货运行业周期监测指数可以客观记录道路货运行业波动的过程,科学预测道路货运行业的周期波动趋势,为新常态下道路货运行业健康发展提供宏观调控的决策参考。
In this paper,we collect the monthly indicators related to Chinese road freight industry,economic operation of China s,screen out the leading indicators,consistent indicators and lagging indicators by the method of time lag correlation analyze,and construct cycle monitoring index for road freight industry based on composite index model.According its fluctuation to analysis the cyclical fluctuation characteristics of China s road freight industry,then we verify its antecedent relationship with macroeconomic cyclical fluctuations.The results show that:in the past 2005~2016 years,China s road freight industry has experienced four obvious rising and falling periods,the road freight industry has basically the same trend with the macro economy,but the range of volatility is different with it,the fluctuation amplitude of road freight is more obvious than that of macroeconomic climate index.The process of road freight industry periodic monitoring index can objectively record the fluctuation of road freight industry,and scientific prediction of periodic fluctuation trend of road freight industry,and provide macro regulation for the healthy development of the road freight industry reference.
作者
刘瑞娟
王建伟
刘宇腾
王雪
Liu Ruijuan;Wang Jianwei;Liu Yuteng;Wang Xue(School of Economics and Management,Chang an University,Xi an 710064,China)
出处
《工业技术经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第11期145-152,共8页
Journal of Industrial Technological Economics
基金
交通运输部软科学研究项目"道路货物运输行业运行动态监测机制研究"(项目编号:2013-312-321-260)
中央高校基金项目"新常态下道路货运与国民经济发展适应性研究"(项目编号:310823160429)
关键词
公路运输经济
周期性波动
合成指数
道路货运业
宏观经济景气指数
时差相关分析方法
road transportation economy
cycle fluctuation
composite index
road freight industry
macroeconomic climate index
the method of time lag correlation analysis
