摘要
基于2013—2016年甘南州181个区域站及自动站小时雨量观测资料,提取出53次大到暴雨天气过程,在此基础上进一步分析卫星云图、雷达观测资料以及历史天气资料。结果表明:甘南地区的大到暴雨天气过程主要出现在雨季,7、8月出现频次较高,其天气形势主要分为:西风槽型、副热带高压边缘型、低涡切变型、两高之间切变型、高压内部切变型5种类型,且以西风槽型为主。各类型大到暴雨天气过程的预报侧重点有所不同,西风槽型大到暴雨预报主要侧重于天气尺度环境场分析,其降水时间长,强度较弱(15 mm·h^(-1)以下),副热带高压边缘型、低涡切变型、两高之间切变型大到暴雨天气的预报主要归结为对高原上短时强降水的预报,短时强降水的实时观测可为这三种类型大到暴雨天气过程的预报提供重要依据。
Total 53 heavy rainfall events were identified by historical hourly precipitation from 181 regional stations and automatic meteorological stations over Ganan Plateau during 2013-2016.Corresponding synoptic characteristics were analyzed and extracted from the satellite imagery,radar observation and historical weather data.The results show that heavy rainfall always occurred during the rainy season,especially in July and August.The synoptic situations of heavy rainfall were mainly divided into five patterns including west wind trough,subtropical high-pressure borderline,strong shear in low vortex,wind shear between two high systems and wind shear in high systems,but the westerly trough was dominant.The emphasis of the prediction procedure of heavy rainfall was different among these five synoptic conditions.Under the situation of westerly trough,contribution of large-scale environment played an important role.The precipitation could last long time with weak intensity(less than 15 mm·h^-1).However,forecast about subtropical high-pressure borderline,strong shear in low vortex,wind shear between two high systems should be focused on the prediction of short-term heavy precipitation over the plateau.The real-time observation of short-term heavy rainfall could provide an important basis for the prediction of these three types of extreme rain events.
作者
王成福
谢蕊
吉哲君
敖泽建
罗王军
陈洋
魏娟娟
金满慧
WANG Chengfu;XIE Rui;JI Zhejun;AO Zejian;LUO Wangjun;CHEN Yang;WEI Juanjuan;JIN Manhui(Gannan Meteorological Bureau of Gansu Province,Hezuo 747000,Gansu,China;Tianshui Meteorological Bureau of Gansu Province,Tianshui 741000,Gansu,China)
出处
《干旱气象》
2019年第1期97-108,118,共13页
Journal of Arid Meteorology
基金
甘肃省气象局青年优秀科技人才项目资助
关键词
甘南高原
大到暴雨
概念模型
卫星云图
雷达
Gannan plateau
heavy rainfall
conceptual model
satellite imagery
radar
