摘要
目的通过Fisher逐步判别分析法建立儿童紫癜性肾炎(HSPN)病理分级的预测模型。方法通过对重庆医科大学附属儿童医院收治的144例儿童HSPN的病理分级与实验室指标、临床表现中的28项指标进行研究,建立Fisher逐步判别分析模型,并检验其在预测HSPN病理分级的正确率。结果HSPN不同病理分级间有差异的实验室指标、临床表现的指标有5项。对于病理分级为Ⅱ级、Ⅲ级和Ⅳ级的HSPN患儿,筛选出5项指标建立了Fisher逐步判别分析模型(P<0.05),通过100次随机抽样诊断模拟,综合诊断正确率为(61.371±8.740)%。对于病理分级为Ⅲa级和Ⅲb级的HSPN患儿,筛选出5项指标建立了Fisher逐步判别分析模型(P<0.05),通过100次随机抽样诊断模拟,综合诊断正确率为(68.015±5.736)%。结论本研究建立的Fisher逐步判别分析模型对预测HSPN病理分级具有较高的诊断正确率,对临床上初诊的HSPN患儿的早期治疗和预后评估具有一定的指导价值。
Objective To establish the pathological grades of Henoch-Sch?nlein purpura nephritis(HSPN) in children with diagnostic prediction models by stepwise Fisher discriminant in children. Methods Based on the investigation of 28 clinical indicators from 144 cases with HSPN came from Children′s Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, the sensitive indicators were found and stepwise Fisher discriminant model was established and its accuracy in predicting the pathological classification of HSPN was tested. Results There were 5 laboratory indicators and clinical manifestations with different pathological grades of HSPN.In children with pathological grade Ⅱ,Ⅲ and Ⅳ, 5 indicators were screened (P<0.05) and stepwise Fisher discriminant models were established.And the correct rate of comprehensive diagnosis was (61.371±8.740)% in 100 random sampling diagnostic simulations;in children with pathological grade Ⅲa and Ⅲb, 5 indicators were also screened (P<0.05) and stepwise Fisher discriminant models were established.And the correct rate of comprehensive diagnosis was (68.015±5.736)% in 100 random sampling diagnostic simulations. Conclusions The stepwise Fisher discriminant models established in this research have a better diagnostic accuracy in forecasting for pathological grade of HSPN, and have a certain guiding value on early treatment and prognosis evaluation of children with newly diagnosed HSPN.
作者
黄敏
李佳承
张高福
Huang Min;Li Jiacheng;Zhang Gaofu(Department of Pediatrics, Youyang Hospital, the First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University Youyang409800, Chongqing, China;Department of Nephrology, Children rs Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Ministry ofEducation, Key Laboratory of Child Development and Disorders, Chongqing 400014, China)
出处
《中华实用儿科临床杂志》
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第14期1072-1076,共5页
Chinese Journal of Applied Clinical Pediatrics
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目(81100506)
重庆市卫生计生委医学科研项目面上项目(2017MSXM047)
全国医学专业学位研究生教育委员会课题资助(B2-20170302-13).
关键词
Fisher逐步判别分析模型
紫癜性肾炎
病理
儿童
Stepwise Fisher discriminant model
Henoch-Schonlein purpura nephritis
Pathology
Child
