摘要
笔者使用北京市2013年1月至2015年6月产品层面的出口数据,研究了2014年年底国家上调部分产品出口退税率对出口的影响。通过将退税率未做调整的产品作为控制组,倍差法的实证结果表明,出口退税率调整对产品出口的影响存在明显差异:退税率上调没有增加纺织品服装类产品的出口,而对高附加值产品的出口有显著促进作用。产品层面的回归结果表明,上调高附加值产品的出口退税率使该类产品相对于其他产品的出口额平均增加4.02%,政策效果明显。结合中美贸易战背景及2018年下半年我国上调出口退税率、完善出口退税政策、加快退税进度等举措,笔者认为,应形成"整体退税率与经济情况相适应,行业退税率与产业结构优化相配合"的出口退税率设置;加强监管、防范出口骗税;在WTO框架内,灵活运用出口退税政策推动我国外向型经济持续健康发展。
Based on the Beijing products’ export data from January 2013 to June 2015, this paper investigates the impacts of the increase of export VAT rebate rates in 2014 on exports.By employing the products whose VAT rebate rate didn’t get adjusted, our difference-in-difference estimation corroborates that the increase of VAT rebate rate doesn’t promote the export of textile and apparel products, however, it has significant positive effect on the export of high value-added products.Compared with the control group, the increase of VAT rebate rate for high value-added products contributes to 4.02% more export.Considering the recent Sino-US trade war and policies of increasing VAT rebate rate, improving relevant policies, and accelerating the tax rebate process, this paper indicates that the overall level of VAT rebate rate should be in line with the economic situation, and the specific rebate rate of certain industry should be cooperate with the objective of industrial structure optimization.Strengthening supervision towards export tax fraud and making flexible use of VAT rebate policy to promote the sustainable and healthy development of China’s export-oriented economy within the framework of WTO.
出处
《中央财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第11期17-27,共11页
Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics
基金
北京市社会科学界联合会青年社科人才资助项目“出口退税与北京市出口产品结构研究”(项目编号:2018QNRC24)
关键词
出口退税
倍差法
产品出口
异质影响
Export rebate
DID method
Product export
Heterogeneous effect
