摘要
以武汉市青山区为研究区,基于155个样点,对Cu、Pb和Zn 3种重金属的超标范围进行了不确定性研究,采用普通克里格法对重金属含量的空间分布状况进行预测,再用指示克里格法对重金属超过背景值的超标概率进行预测,最后分别依据插值结果是否超过土壤背景值和超过背景值概率是否大于50%划分3个不同程度的超标范围。结果表明:不确定Cu、Pb和Zn是否超标的范围分别为2.59%、40.25%和15.52%,大都处于超标和未超标的交错区域。Cu的不确定范围较小,主要在研究区西北部,区域较小且集中;Pb和Zn的不确定性区域都比较大,Pb的不确定区域主要分布在东部农业区和中部的工业区以及北部部分居民区,Zn的不确定区域分布较分散。因此,在以后的工业生产以及农业活动中要注意控制减少Pb、Zn等重金属流入土壤,以免不确定区域进一步演变成超标区域。
In this study,taking Wuhan city Qingshan district as the study area,it studies the uncertainty of exceeded standard range of 155 sample points for Cu,Pb and Zn three kinds of heavy metals,using ordinary kriging to predict the spatial distribution of heavy metal content,then using indicator kriging to predict the overproof probability of heavy metal for exceeding the background value,finally,respectively,on the basis of whether the interpolation result is more than the soil background value and whether the probability of exceeding the background value is greater than 50%dividing into three different levels of exceeded standard range.The results show that the study area of uncertain whether exceeded standard with Cu,Pb and Zn are2.59%,40.25%and 15.52%respectively,mostly in the crisscross area between overproof and not overproof.The uncertainty range of Cu is small,mainly in the northwest of the study area,small and concentrated;the uncertainty range of Pb and Zn are large,the uncertainty area of Pb are mainly distributed in the eastern agricultural area and industrial zone in central and northern part of the residential areas,the uncertainty area of Zn is decentralized.Therefore,in future industrial production and agricultural activities must pay attention to the control to reduce the Pb,Zn and other heavy metals into the soil,so as to avoid uncertain region further evolved into overproof region.
出处
《环境科学与技术》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第S2期449-454,共6页
Environmental Science & Technology
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费专项(2662014PY062)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2662015PY156)
国家自然科学基金面上项目(41671217)
关键词
土壤重金属
空间分布
超标概率
超标范围
不确定性分析
soil heavy metal
spacial distribution
overproof probability
overproof range
uncertainty analysis
