摘要
基于1959-2018年陕西秦岭腹地32个气象站点逐日气温、降水资料和计算得出的标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),采用线性倾向评估法、ANUSPLIN空间插值法、Mann-Kendall检验和R/S分析法等,分析了秦岭地区春季气候时空变化特征和未来气候变化趋势。结果表明:①1959-2018年秦岭地区春季表现为显著暖干化趋势,水热突变不同步。气温以0.33℃·(10a)^-1速率上升,降水量以4.90 mm·(10a)^-1速率下降,SPEI值以0.14·(10a)^-1速率下降。②空间变化上,秦岭地区暖干化存在空间差异,呈"北部快、南部慢"变化格局。有99.65%的像元显示气温呈显著上升趋势,64.46%的像元显示降水量呈显著下降趋势,75.28%的像元显示SPEI值呈显著下降趋势。对春季气候变化响应敏感区位于北部的宝鸡、周至、户县、长安和南部的太白、柞水、镇安。③1994-2008年干旱发生频率较高、干旱程度较重,2009年后干旱发生频率和程度有所减轻,干旱发生频率为"北部高、南部低,西部高、东部低"的空间分布格局。未来秦岭地区春季气候将持续表现为暖干化趋势。
In this paper,the characteristics of climate change and future climate trend in the Qinling Mountains in spring were studied and predicted by using the linearity estimation,ANUSPLIN spatial interpolation method,MannKendall test and R/S analysis based on the data of daily temperature and precipitation and the calculated SPEI data from 32 meteorological stations in the study area from 1959 to 2018.The results showed that:①There was a significant warming-drying trend in the Qinling Mountains in spring during the period of 1959-2018,and the fluctuation was not synchronized.The temperature increase rate in the study area in spring was 0.33℃·(10a)^-1,and the precipitation descending rate in the same season was 4.90 mm·(10a)^-1.The SPEI value in the Qinling area in spring was in a significant downward trend with a decrease rate of 0.14·(10a)^-1;②There was a spatial difference of the warming-drying trend in the Qinling Mountains,and the change was fast in the north but slow in the south.The temperature was in a significant increase trend in 99.65%pixels,the precipitation was in a significant decrease trend in 64.46%pixels,and the SPEI value was in a significant downward trend in 75.28%pixels.The areas sensitive to the climate change in spring were located in Baoji,Zhouzhi,Huxian and Chang’an in the north and Taibai,Zhashui and Zhen’an in the sourth;③The occurring frequency of drought was high and its level was serious during the period of 1994-2008,but the situation was alleviated after 2009.The occurring frequency of drought was high in the north and west,and low in the south and east.Such warming-drying climate trend in the Qinling Mountains in spring would continue in the future.
作者
齐贵增
白红英
孟清
赵婷
郭少壮
QI Gui-zeng;BAI Hong-ying;MENG Qing;ZHAO Ting;GUO Shao-zhuang(Northwest University,Xi’an 710127,Shaanxi,China;Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity,Xi'an 710127,Shaanxi,China)
出处
《干旱区研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第5期1079-1091,共13页
Arid Zone Research
基金
国家林业公益性行业科研专项(201304309)资助
关键词
春季
气温
降水
气候变化
时空差异
秦岭
陕西
spring
temperature
precipitation
climate change
spatiotemporal difference
Qinling Mountains
Shaanxi
