摘要
目的分析乌鲁木齐市院前急救创伤现状并预测未来五年情况,为院前急救资源的合理配置和完善卫生服务体系提供依据。方法收集乌鲁木齐2011年1月1日至2018年12月31日共427754例院前急救患者病例信息,运用流行病学方法进行统计描述和分析,采用单因素灰色GM(1,1)模型、多因素灰色模型和移动平均MA1模型进行院前急救创伤总量的年预测,用单因素灰色GM(1,1)模型和SARIMA模型进行季节预测。结果乌鲁木齐市院前急救创伤患者男女比为1.98:1,男性发病率(534.91/10万)明显高于女性(274.88/10万),(χ2=7659.707,P<0.01),男性发病率是女性的1.95倍。35~59岁人群所占比例最大(42%),≥60岁发病率最高(644.23/10万)。创伤发病率逐年增加(由2011年408.86/10万增至2017年550.02/10万),夏季高发(27123人次,31.03%),尤以8月份(9535人次,10.91%)最多,多发于高新区(新市区)(23157人次,26.50%)。单因素灰色GM(1,1)模型、多因素灰色模型、移动平均MA1模型预测2023年院前急救创伤总量(人次)分别为13118、11715、13305,MAE分别为451.1250、607.4286、205.1250。单因素灰色GM(1,1)模型、SARIMA模型对夏季的预测量分别为3638人次、4999人次,MAE分别为47.1290、110.3704。结论乌鲁木齐院前急救创伤以男性、青壮年为主,老年人发病率最高,夏季为高发季节。院前急救创伤需求量将持续增加,卫生行政部门应加大院前急救资源的配置,提高院前急救创伤服务能力和效率。
Objective To investigate the current situation of pre-hospital trauma emergency medical care of Urumqi in 2011-2018 and predict the situation in the next five years,so as to provide a basis for rational allocation of pre-hospital emergency resources and improvement of health service system.Methods A total of 427754 pre-hospital emergency patients were collected from January 1,2011 to December 31,2008 in Urumqi.Epidemiological methods were performed for statistical description and analysis.The single-factor gray model[GM(1,1)],multi-factor grey model and moving average model(MA1)was established for predicting the number of pre-hospital trauma patients each year.The single-factor gray model[GM(1,1)]and SARIMA model were used for the seasonal prediction.Results The male-female ratio of pre-hospital trauma patients was 1.98:1 and the incidence rate of male patients(534.91/100000)was significantly higher than that of female patients(274.88/100000)(χ2=7659.707,P<0.01),and the incidence rate of male patients was 1.95 times higher than that of female patients.The trauma patients aged 35-59 years accounted for the largest proportion(42%),and the incidence of the disease was the highest among those aged≥60 years old(644.23/100000).The incidence of pre-hospital trauma increased year by year(from 408.86/100000 in 2011 to 550.02/100000 in 2017),with a high incidence in summer(27123,31.03%),especially in August(9535,10.91%),most of which occurred in the new urban area(high-tech zone)(23157,26.50%).The single-factor gray model[GM(1,1)],multi-factor gray model,and moving average model(MA1)predicted that the total number of pre-hospital trauma patients in 2023 was 13118,11715 and 13305,respectively,and the MAE were 451.1250,607.4286,and 205.1250,respectively.The single-factor gray model[GM(1,1)]and SARIMA model predicted the value in the summer of 2023 would be 3638 and 4999,respectively,and the MAE were 47.1290 and 110.3704,respectively.Conclusions The pre-hospital trauma in Urumqi is mainly male and young work-age adults,the incidence of the elderly is the highest,summer is the season of high incidence,and the new urban area(high-tech zone)is the primary district.The moving average model(MA1)model has a more accurate annual prediction,and the single-factor gray model[GM(1,1)]is the best model for seasonal prediction.The pre-hospital trauma emergency medical care demand will continue to increase in the next five years.The health administrative department should enlarge the allocation of pre-hospital emergency resources and improve the emergency service capabilities and efficiencies.
作者
张婷婷
冯燕玲
李树林
Zhang Tingting;Feng Yanling;Li Shulin(Urumqi Emergency Center Dispatching Division,Urumqi 830002,China)
出处
《中华急诊医学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第11期1350-1356,共7页
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine
基金
乌鲁木齐市卫生和计划生育委员会科技计划项目(201830)。
关键词
乌鲁木齐
创伤
院前急救
现状
预测
Urumqi
Trauma
Pre-hospital emergency medical care
Current situation
Prediction
