摘要
研究重庆市区年降水量演变特征及其驱动因素对揭示地区降水时空变化规律、水资源开发利用、短期气候预测等具有重要指导价值和意义。运用累积距平法和趋势系数法、Spearman秩相关法以及Morlet小波分析法对重庆市区沙坪坝站1951—2017年降水量进行演变特征分析。结果表明:重庆市区年降水量经历了1951—1958年的偏少阶段、1959—2012年的震荡阶段以及2013—2017年的偏多阶段,目前正处于降水量偏多阶段;年降水量变化呈上升趋势,但上升趋势并不显著;重庆市区年降水量存在56、36、8 a的3个主周期。通过降水量驱动因素分析,重庆市区年降水量与年平均气温和年平均气压以及当地湿度的变化呈正相关关系,具有相同的上升趋势,整体变化量达到3.3%。
Studying the evolution characteristics and driving factors of annual precipitation in Chongqing urban area has important guiding value and significance for revealing the temporal and spatial variation of precipitation,water resources development and utilization,and short-term climate prediction.The evolution characteristics of precipitation from 1951 to 2017 in Shapingba Station in Chongqing urban areas were analyzed by using cumulative anomaly method and trend coefficient method,Spearman rank correlation method and Morlet wavelet analysis method.The results show that from 1951 to 1958,the annual precipitation in Chongqing urban areas is relatively less.From 1959 to 2012,the annual precipitation in Chongqing urban areas is more or less.From 2013 to 2017,the annual precipitation in Chongqing urban areas is relatively high.At present,the annual precipitation in Chongqing urban areas is in a relatively high stage.The annual precipitation in Chongqing urban areas has shown an upward trend,but the upward trend is not significant.There are three main periods of annual precipitation in Chongqing urban areas,which are 56 years,36 years,and 8 years.Through the analysis of the driving factors of precipitation,the annual precipitation in Chongqing urban areas has a positive correlation with the annual average temperature and the annual average pressure and the change of local humidity,with the same upward trend,and the overall change reaches 3.3%.
作者
张先起
刘斐
武小炎
ZHANG Xianqi;LIU Fei;WU Xiaoyan(School of Water Conservancy,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450046,China;Collaborative Innovation Center of Water Resources Efficient Utilization and Protection Engineering,Zhengzhou 450046,China)
出处
《华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）》
2019年第5期52-57,共6页
Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power：Natural Science Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(U1304511)
关键词
降水量
演变特性
趋势性
周期
驱动因素
precipitation
evolution characteristics
trend
period
driving factors
