摘要
国际金融危机以来,世界经济形势发生了复杂而深远的变化,一些影响长期化的新现象、新问题、新概念不断涌现。作为全球重要的宏观经济研究力量,各国中央银行纷纷着手对后危机时代的新理念、新规律展开深入研究,并努力进行政策性的探索。本文重点讨论当前全球中央银行比较关注的三大问题:一是负利率政策的逻辑与效果;二是全球稳定币的宏观政策挑战;三是气候变化导致的宏观金融风险。现有宏观理论研究存在的不足及政策实践面临的新问题,对研究工作者而言,既是重大挑战,也是难得的历史性机遇。应立足中国国情,放眼全球百年变局,密切跟踪极具未来性的热点问题和理论前沿并将其科学应用于我国高质量发展时代的政策实践。
New economic phenomena,problems,and concepts have emerged consecutively since the financial crisis.As drivers of macroeconomic research,central banks have been carrying out in-depth analysis on these new concepts and patterns and exploring new policy options.The gap between existing macroeconomic theories and the new issues in the practical policy-making process not only poses challenges,but also provides rare historical opportunities to researchers.Currently,central banks’research around the world include the following three key topics.The first is the logic behind negative interest rate policies(NIRPs)and their effects.Since the global financial crisis,some developed economies have implemented NIRPs to stimulate economic recoveries.Strengthened supervision and weakened risk preferences after the crisis provided the possibility for NIRPs,while the credit currency system and the widespread adoption of electronic trading technologies provided the necessary conditions for the implementation of NIRPs.NIRPs may effectively boost confidence,reduce market interest rates,and loosen financial conditions in the short-term.However,in the long-term,the effects will not be as satisfying.NIRPs can easily affect banks’profitability,hamper effective resource allocation,weaken the transmission effect of interest rate policies,create asset bubbles,lead to competitive currency devaluation and financial turmoil,and over-exert central bank’s policy control.China should treasure the fact that our monetary policy operates within normal margins,take full advantage of the decisive role that the market plays in optimizing resource allocation through price leverage,deepen reform and opening-up to improve the role of the government,focus on unblocking the monetary policy transmission channels and provide necessary policy preparations for crisis response.The second is the macroeconomic policy challenges posed by global stablecoins.Facebook’s white paper release of Libra on June 2019 triggered widespread concerns over the potential risks and macroeconomic policy challenges posed by stablecoins.These issues mainly concern four aspects.(1)Stablecoin transactions and payment information are independent of existing systems,thus posing challenges for central banks to provide effective supervision.(2)Stablecoins may weaken the effectiveness of capital control,thereby affecting domestic financial stability.If stablecoins suffer from poorly designed global networks,lack of regulations,or fail to function as intended,they may also introduce new risks to financial stability.(3)Global stablecoins will impact the currency sovereignty of a nation,which may affect the creation and transmission of credit currencies.Stablecoins may also destabilize the demand for currency,which makes policy-setting more difficult.(4)The use of stablecoins on a global scale may further enhance the dominant position of the USD in the international monetary system.In 2014,the People’s Bank of China(PBoC)initiated researches on its own digital currency and digital fiat currency(Digital Currency Electronic Payment,DC/EP).It is necessary to adapt fiat currency to future digital economic ecology and meet the challenges posed by global stablecoins.The third is the risks to the macroeconomy and financial system caused by climate change.Climate change is one of the major factors leading to structural changes in the economy and financial system.First,climate change may shrink collateral values and tighten credit terms,which in turn send market signals that may magnify the risks of climate change.Second,climate change is highly uncertain,and financial institutions are unprepared to handle extreme anomalies.Third,climate change impacts the financial system and the macroeconomy through"circular feedback".The PBoC thoroughly implements new development concepts,attaches great importance on green financial system constructions,and will focus on the following three propositions:(1)climate change’s heterogeneous impact and policy response on specific segments of the financial industry;(2)how the risks of climate change impact macroprudential and microprudential supervision;(3)the feasibility and framework adjustments required to incorporate climate change risks as parameters into the two-pillar regulatory framework of monetary policy and macroprudential policy.The global economy is still teetering on the edge of crisis today.To explore a modern central bank system and establish a highly adaptable,competitive and inclusive modern financial system,we need to mobilize the Chinese academia,the political sphere,and the market together,and cooperate as they participate and explore the theoretical and practical frontiers,so as to better boost academic prosperity,and sustain high-quality economic development in this era of change.
作者
陈雨露
CHEN Yulu(The People’s Bank of China)
出处
《金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第2期1-14,共14页
Journal of Financial Research
关键词
中央银行研究
负利率政策
全球稳定币
气候变化
Central Bank Researches
Negative Interest Rate
Global Stablecoins
Climate-related Financial Risks
