摘要
通过选取1981-2018年福建省FDI、对外贸易、入境旅游和人均GDP的数据,建立VAR模型,进行脉冲响应函数分析、方差分解、协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验。结果显示,短期中FDI、对外贸易和入境旅游对福建省经济增长都起到不同程度的积极作用;长期中对外贸易和入境旅游对福建省经济增长持续起到积极作用,但FDI的负面效应不断强化将不利于福建省的经济增长.因此,大力发展国际旅游业,加快对外贸易的转型升级,降低外资依赖推动民营经济发展是福建省获得长足稳定增长的重要途径.
Based on the data of FDI,foreign trade,inbound tourism and per capita GDP of Fujian Province from 1981 to 2018,a Var model was established to analyze the impulse response function,variance decomposition,cointegration test and Granger causality test.The results show that FDI,foreign trade and inbound tourism have positive effects on Fujian's economic growth in the short and medium term,and foreign trade and inbound tourism have positive effects on Fujian's economic growth in the long and medium term,however,the increasing negative effects of FDI will not benefit the economic growth of Fujian Province.Therefore,to develop international tourism,to speed up the transformation and upgrading of foreign trade,to reduce the dependence on foreign investment and to promote the development of private economy is an important way for Fujian province to achieve long-term and stable growth.
作者
陈亚红
CHEN Yahong(School of Economics,Yang En University,Quanzhou Fujian 362014,China)
出处
《长沙大学学报》
2020年第2期97-101,共5页
Journal of Changsha University
基金
2019年福建省中青年教师教育科研项目(社科类)“新时代福建开放型经济高质量发展的研究”,编号:JAS19404.
关键词
FDI
对外贸易
入境旅游
经济增长
福建省
FDI
foreign trade
inbound tourism
economic growth
fujian province
