摘要
产业集聚是促进农业增长的重要动力。以中国生猪养殖业为研究对象,基于中国31个省份2003年至2017年相关统计数据,运用固定效应估计、两阶段最小二乘估计、门槛估计、空间杜宾模型、最大似然估计等方法,对生猪养殖业产业集聚增长效应的存在性和形态、增长效应的地区差异性和增长效应的空间溢出效应等问题进行了深入考察。研究发现:中国各省份生猪养殖业产业集聚的梯度特征和连片化特征明显,约束发展区产业集聚最高,适度发展区产业集聚最低,区域内部各省份产业集聚分化明显。产业集聚对生猪养殖业产出量的影响为显著的“倒U型”,在产业集聚较低阶段,提高产业集聚能促进生猪养殖效率;在产业集聚过高阶段,提高产业集聚反而会抑制生猪养殖效率。产业集聚增长效应存在显著双重门槛,产业集聚介于0.389至0.462时的增长效应最强。生猪养殖业产业集聚的增长效应存在显著区域差异,对潜力增长区和适度发展区的增长效应为显著的“倒U型”,对重点发展区和约束发展区的增长效应不显著。生猪养殖业产业集聚的增长效应还存在显著空间溢出,且为“倒U型”,并强化了增长效应。因此,中国应进一步促进生猪养殖业向优势区域集聚,发挥产业集聚带来的增长效应,并强化空间溢出。
The industrial agglomeration is an important boosting power for agricultural growth.Taking hog industry in China as the research object,and based on the relevant statistics data of 31 provinces in China from 2003 to 2017,this paper thoroughly investigated the existence and form,the regional difference,and the spatial spillover of the hog industrial agglomeration growth effect in China by different estimation methods,including the fixed effect estimation,the two stage least square estimation,the threshold estimation,the space Durbin estimation,and the maximum likelihood estimation.Results demonstrate that:Hog industrial agglomeration in China shows an obvious gradient and contiguous feature.The constrained development region shows the highest industrial agglomeration,and the moderately development region shows the lowest industrial agglomeration.The industrial agglomerations also present heterogeneity among different provinces.China’s hog industrial agglomeration has a significant“inverted U”curve influence on the hog industry output.When the industrial agglomeration is low,raising agglomeration will promote hog production efficiency.When the industrial agglomeration is too high,raising agglomeration will weaken hog production efficiency.The growth effect of hog industrial agglomeration has significant double thresholds.When the industrial agglomeration is between 0.389 and 0.462,the growth effect is the strongest.The growth effect of hog industrial agglomeration has obvious regional difference.China’s hog industrial agglomeration shows significant“inverted U”curve growth effect in the potential growth region and the moderately development region,and has non-significant growth effect in the key development region and the constrained development region.The growth effect of hog industrial agglomeration also has obvious spatial spillover effects,which shows an“inverted U”curve and intensifies the growth effect.Consequently,China should promote hog industrial agglomeration in the advantage regions,enhance the growth effect of hog industrial agglomeration,and strengthen the spatial spillover growth effect of the industrial agglomeration.
作者
钟搏
赵连阁
ZHONG Bo;ZHAO Lian-ge(College of Economics and Management,Hengyang Normal University,Hengyang,Hunan 421002,China;School of Economics,Zhejiang Gongshang University,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310018,China)
出处
《农业现代化研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第2期341-350,共10页
Research of Agricultural Modernization
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71373238)
湖南省社会科学成果评审委员会课题(XSP19YBC262)
衡阳师范学院科学基金项目(18D32)。
关键词
生猪养殖业
产业集聚
增长效应
区位商
空间溢出
hog industry
the industrial agglomeration
growth effect
location quotient
spatial spillover
