摘要
针对配电变压器健康状态评估中各评估状态量存在模糊性和随机性的问题,提出一种基于云模型和D-S证据理论的配电变压器健康状态评估方法。首先,建立配电变压器健康状态评估指标体系,确定评估指标的权重,并划分评估结果的等级;其次,利用云模型将不确定性概念中的模糊性和随机性有机结合在一起,得到了各指标的隶属度,将各指标的隶属度作为D-S证据理论具体应用中各证据的初始概率分布,并对其进行修正;最后,将修正后的概率分布按照融合规则进行融合,得到配电变压器健康状态的评估结果。通过实例分析,验证了该健康状态评估方法的有效性及可行性,评估结果更符合实际情况。研究成果可为配电变压器的状态检修提供依据。
In order to solve the problem of fuzziness and randomness of each evaluation state variable in the health status assessment of distribution transformer,a health status assessment method for distribution transformer is proposed based on cloud model and D-S evidence theory.Firstly,the health assessment index system of distribution transformer is established,and the weights of the health status assessment index are determined.The results of health status assessment are graded.Secondly,the cloud model is used to combine the fuzziness and randomness together in the concept of uncertainty to obtain the membership degree of each index,which is taken as the initial probability distribution of each evidence in the concrete application of D-S evidence theory.And then the initial probability distribution is modified.Finally,the modified probability distribution is fused to obtain the results of health status assessment for distribution transformer according to the fusion rules.The effectiveness and feasibility of the health status assessment method are verified through an example analysis.The assessment results are close to the actual situation,which can provide basis for condition maintenance of distribution transformers.
作者
张婷
赵峰
高锋阳
ZHANG Ting;ZHAO Feng;GAO Feng-yang(School of Automation and Electrical Engineering,Lanzhou Jiao Tong University,Lanzhou 730070,China;Gansu Delivery Engineering Testing Technology,Lanzhou 730070,China)
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2020年第3期181-185,共5页
Water Resources and Power
基金
甘肃省重点研发项目(18YF1FA058)。
关键词
配电变压器
组合权重
云模型
D-S证据理论
健康状态评估
distribution transformer
combination weight
cloud model
D-S evidence theory
health status assessment
