摘要
应用2014~2018年婺源茶叶观测资料和同期的气象资料,采用关键气象因子预报方法,并引入不断变化的气象条件,对婺源常规的春茶开采期预报模型进行了改进;然后以2019年为例,对改进的关键气象因子预报模型和常规的预报模型进行了预报检验。结果表明:1月平均气温和1月雨日数是影响婺源春茶开采期的关键气象因子;1月平均气温越高、1月雨日数越多,则春茶的开采期越早。与常规的关键气象因子预报模型相比,改进模型对2019年婺源春茶开采期的预报结果与实际值更加接近,预报效果更好。本文建立的婺源春茶开采期预报模型具有较好的时效性,能够满足春茶开采期预报业务的需要。
Based on the observation data of Wuyuan tea from 2014 to 2018 and the meteorological data of the same period,the prediction method of key meteorological factors was adopted,and the changing meteorological conditions were introduced to improve the conventional prediction model of spring tea picking date.Then,2019 was taken as an example,and the improved prediction model of key meteorological factors and the conventional prediction model were tested.The results showed that the average temperature and the number of rainy days in January were the key meteorological factors affecting the exploitation of Wuyuan spring tea.The higher the average temperature and the more rainy days in January were,the earlier the exploitation of spring tea was.Compared with the conventional forecast model of key meteorological factors,the forecast results of Wuyuan spring tea picking date in 2019 by the improved model were closer to the practical values,and the forecast effect was better.The prediction model of Wuyuan spring tea picking date proposed in this paper has better timeliness and can meet the operational needs of the forecast of spring tea picking date.
作者
杨爱萍
陶瑶
汪建军
张坤
林志坚
YANG Ai-ping;TAO Yao;WANG Jian-jun;ZHANG Kun;LIN Zhi-jian(Jiangxi Agricultural Meteorological Center,Nanchang 330096,China;Shangrao Meteorological Bureau of Jiangxi Province,Shangrao 334000,China;Meteorological Research Institute of Jiangxi Province,Nanchang 330096,China)
出处
《江西农业学报》
CAS
2020年第5期112-115,共4页
Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi
基金
江西省气象科技重点项目“特色农产品气候品质评价技术研究”
上饶市气象局科研项目“茶叶气候品质评价技术研究”。
关键词
婺源
春茶
开采期
预报模型
Wuyuan
Spring tea
Picking date
Prediction model
