摘要
目的研究两种高发心血管疾病的发病率及死亡率与互联网搜索引擎数据之间的关联,评估特定类型心血管疾病人群的地区分布差异。方法本研究从全球疾病负担数据库中获取2011-2017年中国冠心病及脑卒中的发病率和死亡率数据。冠心病及脑卒中的网络搜索数据来自百度指数。采用Excel 2016、SPSS 22.0及Eviews 8.0进行Spearman秩相关分析、时间序列分析、单位根检验和Engle-Granger检验。结果 2011-2017年冠心病和脑卒中的发病率和死亡率均呈上升趋势,冠心病的死亡率高于发病率,且随着时间变化呈现扩大的趋势。关键词"冠心病"的百度指数与冠心病的发病率及死亡率均呈正相关关系(rs均为0.961,P<0.01);关键词"脑卒中"的百度指数与脑卒中的发病率及死亡率也均呈正相关关系(rs分别为0.833、0.834,P<0.01)。对原始的百度指数数据进行时间序列季节性分解后,新的百度指数数据亦分别与冠心病、脑卒中的发病率和死亡率数据呈正相关关系(冠心病发病率的rs为0.965,冠心病死亡率的rs为0.965,脑卒中发病率的rs为0.895,脑卒中死亡率的rs为0.877,P<0.01)。Engle-Granger检验结果显示,在二阶差分的水平上,冠心病、脑卒中关键词的百度指数数据与发病率和死亡率均存在协整关系。华东地区对2种心血管疾病的网络搜索量最大,东北及西北地区的网络搜索量最小。冠心病及脑卒中网络搜索量排名前3的城市分别为北京市、成都市和上海市。结论搜索行为从不同的角度反映了公众对心血管疾病的认知。研究互联网搜索行为作为一种补充手段,为监测心血管疾病的发病和死亡趋势提供了一种创新和实时的方法。
Objective To study the correlation between the morbidity and mortality of two cardiovascular diseases with high incidence and internet search engine data,and to evaluate the area distribution difference for population with special cardiovascular diseases. Methods The morbidity and mortality data of coronary heart disease and stroke in China from 2011 to2017 were from the Global Burden of Disease database. The internet search engine data of coronary heart disease and stroke were from Baidu index. Spearman rank correlation analysis,time series analysis,unit root test and Engle-Granger test were performed by Excel 2016,SPSS 22.0 and Eviews 8.0. Results The morbidity and mortality of coronary heart disease and stroke increased from 2011 to 2017,and the mortality of coronary heart disease was higher than the morbidity of coronary heart disease,and showed an expanding trend with time. Baidu index of keywords "coronary heart disease" was positively correlated with the morbidity and mortality of coronary heart disease(rs=0.961,P<0.01);Baidu index of keyword "stroke" was positively correlated with the morbidity and mortality of stroke(rsvalues were 0.833 and 0.834,P<0.01). After seasonal decomposition of time series for the original Baidu index data,new Baidu index data were also correlated positively with the morbidity and mortality of coronary heart disease and stroke(morbidity and mortality of coronary heart disease :rsvalues were 0.965 and 0.965;morbidity and mortality of stroke :rs values were 0.895 and 0.877,P<0.01). Engle-Granger test showed that at level of second order difference,the Baidu index data of keywords "coronary heart disease and stroke" and the morbidity and mortality showed the co-integration relationship. The network search volumes of two cardiovascular diseases in the east China were the greatest,and the network search volumes of two cardiovascular diseases in the northeast and northwest China were the smallest. The first three cities of network search volumes for coronary heart disease and stroke were Beijing,Chengdu and Shanghai. Conclusion Search behavior reflects the public awareness of cardiovascular diseases. The study of internet search behavior serves as the supplementary means to provide the innovative and real-time methods for monitoring morbidity and mortality trends of cardiovascular diseases.
作者
徐晨婕
侯亚冰
曹新西
李书
王媛
徐富升
王耀刚
XU Chen-jie;HOU Ya-bing;CAO Xin-xi;LI Shu;WANG Yuan;XU Fu-sheng;WANG Yao-gang(School of Public Health,Tianjin Medical University,Tianjin 300070,China)
出处
《中国慢性病预防与控制》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第4期270-273,279,F0004,共6页
Chinese Journal of Prevention and Control of Chronic Diseases
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(91746205,71673199,71704131)。
关键词
心血管疾病
百度指数
关注度
搜索行为
Cardiovascular diseases
Baidu index
Public attention
Search behaviors
