摘要
强降水事件的频发给人类社会造成了巨大危害,研究其时空变化特征具有重要的现实意义。依托安徽省77个气象站点1973-2017年逐日降水资料及全省粮食产量数据,运用降水指标群评估了研究区强降水灾害的时空演变格局。结果表明:(1)基于各站点11个降水指数的多年均值,主成分分析表明安徽省强降水的极值和持续性呈现出显著的南北梯度,高值区域主要集中在南部地区;(2)各站点不同类型降水指数与全省水灾受灾总面积的相关分析表明极端雨天总降水量(P95)是表征雨涝灾害最有效的指标;(3)基于主成分分析,安徽省可以划分为6个呈现不同P95变化情形的子区域,分别为中南部、中北部、南部、西北角、东北角、最北端,其中大部分区域2003年后P95增加态势较为强烈;(4)全省夏、秋量总产量对中北部P95的年际异常更为敏感,特别是近45年来中北部P95的增加趋势给夏粮产量带来了0.72%的减产。研究结果对评估气候变化对安徽省粮食生产安全的可能影响具有参考意义。
The frequent occurrence of heavy rainfalls has caused great harm to human society, and it is important to explore its temporal and spatial characteristics. By using the daily precipitation data of 77 meteorological stations and provincial grain yield records in Anhui province during 1973-2017, the spatio-temporal variability of heavy rainfalls disasters were evaluated with precipitation indicator groups. The main results are as follows.(1) Based on the multi-annual average of 11 precipitation indices of each station, the principal component analysis(PCA) showed that the extreme and persistence of heavy rainfalls in Anhui Province presented a notable north-south gradient, and the high values mainly concentrated in the south area.(2) The correlation analysis between precipitation indices of each station and provincial total area affected by floods indicated that the total precipitation of extreme rainy days(P95) was the most effective indicator for waterlogging disasters.(3) By using PCA, Anhui could be divided into six sub-regions with different temporal variations in P95 such as south-central area, north-central area, south area, northwest corner, northeast corner, northernmost area, and most of Anhui had been dominated by the strong increase of P95 since 2003.(4) The provincial summer and autumn grain yield was more sensitive to the inter-annual anomalies of P95 in north-central area, especially the increasing trend of P95 in north-central area during recent 45 years brought the decrease of summer grain yield by 0.72%. The study results can be used as a reference for assessing the possible impact of climate change on food production security in Anhui Province.
作者
孙莉娟
陈金华
徐阳
黄进
SUN Lijuan;CHEN Jinhua;XU Yang;HUANG Jin(Anhui Weather Modification Office,Hefei 230031,China;Rural Comprehensive Economic Information Center of Anhui Province/Anhui Agrometeorological Center,Hefei 230031,China;School of Applied Meteorology,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Huaihe River Basin Meteorological Center,Hefei 230031,China)
出处
《水土保持研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第3期128-133,共6页
Research of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFD0300905)
淮河流域气象开放研究基金资助项目(HRM201802)
安徽省新技术集成项目(AHXJ201706)。
关键词
强降水
多指数
安徽省
主成分分析
heavy rainfalls
multi-indictors
Anhui Province
principal component analysis
