摘要
衡水湖地处华北最为缺水的地区,是华北平原典型的淡水湖湿地之一,为能持续发挥湿地应用的功能,基于衡水湖漂浮蒸发场观测数据和实验站等相关系列资料,采用线性回归分析法、Man-Kendall趋势检验法和突变检验法等多种分析方法,研究影响衡水湖水位变化的相关因子;根据水量平衡原理,建立了衡水湖现状条件下水位动态预测模型,并进行水位预测预警。结果表明:①建立了衡水湖月均水位与渗漏量的经验公式,计算出衡水湖多年平均年渗漏量为1109.8万m^3,多年平均单位面积渗漏量为37.5万m^3/(km^2·a);②确定了漂浮E601型蒸发器与20m^2蒸发器蒸发量折算系数年均为1.10,得出衡水湖多年平均蒸发量为2895万m^3;③建立了水位动态预测模型,预报精度达到甲级要求,对2020年不同水平年水位以月为单位进行了预测,得出各水平年水位均低于蓝色预警水位19.50m;同时预测了丰平枯水平年要达到蓝色预警水位,分别需引进水量232.3万,1049.3万,1544.4万m^3,为生态保护和水量调度提供数据参考。
Hengshui Lake is one of the typical freshwater lake wetlands in the North China Plain,which is located in the most water deficient area of North China.In order to play the function of humidity continuously,based on the observation data of the floating evaporation field of Hengshui Lake and the relevant series of data of the experimental station,the linear regression analysis,Man-Kendall trend test and mutation test are used to study on the factors of variation in wager level of Hengshui Lake According to the principle of water balance,the dynamic prediction model of water level in Hengshui Lake is established,and carry out water level prediction and early warning.The results show that:①The empirical formula of monthly average water level and leakage of Hengshui Lake is established.The annual average leakage of Hengshui Lake is 11.098 million m^3,and the annual average leakage per unit area is 37.5*10^4m^3/(km^2·a).②the average annual evaporation conversion coefficient of floating E601 evaporator and 20m^2 evaporator is 1.10,and the average annual evaporation amount of Hengshui Lake is 28.95 million m^3.③The dynamic prediction model of water level is established,and the prediction accuracy meets the requirements of class A.The water level of different level years in 2020 is predicted on a monthly basis,and it is concluded that the water level of each level year is lower than the requirement of 19.50m which is blue early warning water level.Meanwhile,it is predicted that when the water level reaches the blue early warning water level in the wet,normal and dry level years,the water volume to be imported will be 2.233 million,10.493 million and 15.444 million m^3 respectively,which is for ecological protection and water dispatching provides data reference.
作者
王永亮
WANG Yongliang(Hengshui Bureau of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hengshui 053000,China)
出处
《水科学与工程技术》
2020年第3期55-60,共6页
Water Sciences and Engineering Technology
关键词
渗漏量
水面蒸发量
折算系数
水位动态
预测模型
leakage
surface evaporation
conversion coefficient
water level dynamics
prediction model
