摘要
基于35个“一带一路”沿线国家或地区,采用2003—2017年跨国直接投资数据,使用固定效应回归估计方法,实证分析人民币汇率变动对我国“一带一路”沿线国家对外直接投资的影响.研究结果表明,人民币升值对中国“一带一路”沿线国家对外直接投资呈现促进作用.进一步利用门槛效应模型进行估计,以东道国经济发展水平作为门限值,选择双重门槛效应进行回归,研究结果表明:当东道国经济发展水平低于门槛值6.076时,人民币升值对我国对外直接投资产生促进效应;当东道国经济发展水平介于6.076和6.622之间,促进作用显著增加;当东道国经济发展水平跨过6.622后,促进作用减弱.当前世界各国经济发展水平的不确定性,影响汇率稳定,“一带一路”倡议为人民币汇率稳定提供“镇定剂”,我国推进“一带一路”沿线国家的直接投资应重视各国经济的发展及其人民币汇率的变化.
Based on 35 countries and regions along the“Belt and Road”,using cross-border directinvestment data from 2003 to 2017 and employing a fixed-effect regression estimation method,an empirical analysis is made of the impact of changes in the RMB exchange rate on China’s direct foreign investment to the countries along the“Belt and Road”.The research results show that the appreciation of the renminbi has promoted foreign direct investment in countries along the“Belt and R-oad”in China.The threshold effect model is further used for estimation.The host country’s economic development level is used as the threshold value,and the double threshold effect is selected for regression.The research results show that when the host country’s economic development level is lower than the threshold value of 6.076,the appreciation of the RMB has a promoting effect on China’s foreign direct investment.When the economic development level of the host country is between 6.076 and 6.622,the promoting effect is significantly increased;when the economic development level of the host country exceeds 6.622,the promotion effect is weakened.The uncertainty of the current levels of economic development in the many countries around the world impinges on the exchange rate stability.The“Belt and Road”initiative provides tranquilizers for the stability of the RMB exchange rate.China’s promotion of direct investment in countries along the“Belt and Road”should give close attention to the economic development of each country and changes in the RMB exchange rate.
作者
钟寻
陈艳余
蔡柠蔚
ZHONG Xun;CHEN Yanyu;CAI Ningwei(School of Mathematics and Informations Science, Neijiang Normal University, Neijiang 641100, China)
出处
《内江师范学院学报》
2020年第6期95-100,共6页
Journal of Neijiang Normal University
基金
内江师范学院2018年度青年项目(17JC04)
内江师范学院2019年度青年项目(18SC11)。
关键词
人民币汇率
对外直接投资
“一带一路”
RMB exchange rate
outward foreign direct investment
“One Belt,One Road”
