摘要
以清代流行的疟疾为研究对象,综合运用Excel时序刻画、GIS空间分析、MaxEnt生态位模拟、BounderSeer边界探测等方法进行研究,结果表明:1)清代有疟疾之年59个,疟疾频度为22.01%,为清代疫灾流行贡献了约2.69%的广度。2)疟疾在中国适生范围广,东南半壁为最佳适生范围;疟疾流行的危险等级高,总体上具有由东南向西北危险等级递减的分布格局;海拔高程、最低气温、气温年较差是影响疟疾流行的主要因素,贡献率分别为44.4%、16.3%和10.6%。3)清代疟疾流行呈现"二横三纵"的边界特征,第一横界40°N一线与第二横界南岭一线分别为疟疾北界和恶性疟疾(瘴病)北界;第一纵界是以霍山为中心,霍山-洪雅直线距离(约1 250 km)为半径的圆弧圈,界内包括96.67%的疟疾流行事件;第二纵界是疟疾高适生区边界线,界内包括中国东、中部省份;第三纵界是以疟疾主要边界网络为标准的围合区,涵盖长三角地区。
Malaria is an insect-borne infectious disease transmitted by anopheles.It was widespread in China about 3,000 years ago and continues to pose a severe threat to human life and health.Taking the Malaria epidemic during the Qing Dynasty as the research object,and using Excel,Geographic Information System(GIS),MaxEnt,and BounderSeer,the following results were obtained:1)Malaria was one of the most common diseases during the Qing Dynasty.During fifty-nine of the total of 268 years of the Qing Dynasty,Malaria was widespread,with a frequency of 22.01%.The disease spread to 17 provinces,leading to an epidemic situation in a total of 210 counties,covering an area of 340,400 km2.This area accounted for approximately 2.69%of the total malariaepidemic area during the Qing Dynasty.Malaria outbreaks frequently during the seasons of autumn and summer.These two seasons account for 85.23%of the total pandemic years and 92.47%of the pandemic-struck counties.Consequently,autumn and summer are targeted for the prevent and control of the Malaria pandemic.2)Genetic adaptations to Malaria parasites is highly adaptable in China,with the southeast being the most optimal place for the mosquitoes to thrive.As per the distribution pattern,the risk of Malaria decreases from the southeast to northwest,of which,the Jiangsu,Anhui,Shandong,Henan,Hubei,and Hunan provinces have higher risks of Malaria.Various environmental factors affect the prevalence of Malaria with altitude,minimum temperature,and annual temperature difference as the main factors,with respective contribution rates of 44.4%,16.3%,and 10.6%.3)The geographical boundaries of Malaria were clearly established.The Malaria epidemic during the Qing Dynasty presented the boundary characteristics of"two horizontal and three vertical."The first horizontal boundary at the 40°N line and the second at the Nanling line were,respectively,the northern boundaries of Malaria and falciparum Malaria(pestilence).The first vertical boundary was an arc with Huoshan at its center.Using the straight-line distance between Huoshan and Hongya(approximately 1,250 km)as the radius,this area accounted for 96.67%of the Qing Dynasty Malaria pandemic.The second vertical boundary was the boundary line of the highly adaptable area of the Malarial mosquito,which included the eastern and central provinces of China.The third vertical boundary was the enclosure area based on the main Malaria network,covering the Yangtze River Delta region.However,the risk levels and boundary characteristics of the Malaria pandemic were not invariable and changed based on the natural and social environments.For example,the high-risk Malariaendemic areas of the Qing Dynasty included Hubei and Hunan,with lower levels of risks in Sichuan,Yunnan,and other provinces,which still continue have low levels of risk.Investigating the temporal and spatial characteristics,risk levels,and boundary characteristics of the Malaria epidemic during the Qing Dynasty is expected to provide a historical basis for the improvement of the present Malaria control system,as well as a historical reference for dealing with sudden Malaria outbreaks.
作者
李孜沫
陈丹阳
王晓伟
Li Zimo;Chen Danyang;Wang Xiaowei(College of Tourism and Economic Management,Nanchang Normal University,Nanchang 330032,China;Dean's Office,Nanchang Normal University,Nanchang 330032,China;College of Tourism,Shandong Women's University,Jinan 250300,China)
出处
《热带地理》
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第3期446-454,共9页
Tropical Geography
基金
江西省高校人文社会科学研究项目(LS19206)
南昌师范学院博士科研启动基金资助项目(NSBSJJ2018028)。
