摘要
基于1965—2014年黑龙江省63个气象站逐月降水资料,利用Z指数、区域洪涝指数、数理统计和反距离权重插值等方法,得出洪涝等级(轻涝、中涝、重涝),分析近50年黑龙江省不同等级洪涝灾害时空分布特征及其变化趋势。结果表明,近50年黑龙江省发生区域性轻度、中度和重度洪涝灾害分别为7次、7次和6次,降水倾向率为0.864 mm/a;洪涝灾害发生频率分布不均,发生轻涝104次、中涝74次以及重涝29次,洪涝灾害发生频率较高地区逐年扩大;同时,发生洪涝灾害的站数比差异明显,且随时间呈缓慢上升趋势,其中,轻涝、中涝和重涝站数比的增幅分别为1.3/10a、1.6/10a和0.85/10a;洪涝灾害高发期主要在20世纪80年代、90年代和2010年之后,主洪涝区为鹤岗、伊春、黑河和牡丹江地区,次洪涝区为大兴安岭和大庆地区。
Based on monthly precipitation data of 63 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang province from 1965-2014,the flood grades(including moderate,mild,and severe floods)were calculated using Z index,regional flood index,the mathematical statistics,inverse distance weight interpolation and other methods.The temporal-spatial evolution characteristic of flood and its change trend were also analyzed in Heilongjiang province.The results show that the number of regional moderate,mild and severe flood disasters occurred in Heilongjiang province are 7,7 and 6,respectively in recent 50 years.The precipitation climatic trend rate is 0.864 mm/a.The frequency of flood disasters demonstrates an unevenly distribution,with 104 times of moderate flood,74 times of mild flood and 29 time of severe flood.The areas with the flood disasters happened frequently expand year by year.Meanwhile,the percentage of stations occurring flood disasters to the total stations has a significant difference year by year and shows an escalating trend.The rates of escalating trend of moderate,mild and severe floods are 1.3/10 a,1.6/10 a and 0.85/10 a,respectively.The highest frequencies of flood disasters occurred in 1980s,1990s and after 2010.Hegang,Yichun,Heihe and Mudanjiang regions are the main disaster areas,and the Greater Khingan Range and Daqing regions are the next ones.
作者
许佳琦
周永吉
姜丽霞
曹义娜
郭立峰
XU Jia-qi;ZHOU Yong-ji;JIANG Li-xia;CAO Yi-na;GUO Li-feng(College of Resource and Environment,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China;Meteorological Data Center of Heilongjiang Province,Harbin 150030,China;Institute of Meteorological Science in Heilogjiang Province,Harbin 150030,China)
出处
《气象与环境学报》
2020年第3期41-48,共8页
Journal of Meteorology and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(31671575,31671576)
国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFD0300103-1)
中国气象局东北地区生态气象创新开放实验室开放研究基金项目(stqx201704)共同资助。
关键词
洪涝灾害
洪涝等级
降水量
Z指数
Flood disasters
Floods grades
Precipitation
Z-index
