摘要
新冠肺炎疫情全球蔓延对我国进出口和全球产业链冲击严重。研究表明:(1)疫情全球蔓延下中国省域遭受到国内和国外两拨停工停运,短中期内出现外贸断崖效应;2020年我国已无国际制度红利激发的贸易创造效应,且货物贸易边际递减;国际贸易保护主义抬头产生贸易抑制效应。(2)疫情全球蔓延下我国在有效防控好国内疫情的同时,需要显著增加向疫情严重的国家出口,以维护好全球产业链和供应链通畅。(3)此次疫情导致电子信息业和汽车制造业面临的上游供给短缺压力大,能源行业和电子信息业面临的下游需求不足压力大。(4)此次疫情下我国拓展出口的重点是防疫产品和集成电路,扩大进口的重点是肉类等日常消费品、铁矿砂等大宗商品以及集成电路。据此,需要积极应对此次疫情冲击,将相关防疫产品进出口作为新的贸易增长点,妥善化解我国企业在全球产业链面临的供需压力,重点巩固我国同美国、欧盟和日韩等传统市场以及东盟等新兴市场的贸易融合关系。
The impact of the global spread of COVID-19 on China s export,import and global industrial chain has been severe.The findings show that:(1)with the global spread of the pandemic,China s provinces have suffered from domestic and foreign stoppage and shutdown,and there is a foreign trade cliff effect in the short and medium term;China will no longer have the trade creation effect stimulated by the international system dividend in 2020,and the margin of goods trade is declining;The rise of protectionism in international trade has caused trade depression effect.(2)In the global pandemic situation,while effectively preventing and controlling the domestic epidemic,China needs to significantly increase its export to the countries with the serious epidemic,so as to maintain the smoothness of global industrial chain and supply chain.(3)Because of the pandemic,the electronic information industry and the automobile manufacturing industry are facing severe pressure of upstream supply shortages,and the energy industry and the electronic information industry are facing severe pressure of insufficient downstream demand.(4)In the epidemic situation,the focus of China s export expansion is mainly on epidemic prevention products and integrated circuits,and the focus of China s import expansion is mainly on daily consumer goods such as meat,and bulk commodities such as iron ore and integrated circuits.Therefore,it s necessary to actively respond to the impact of the pandemic,take the import and export of related epidemic prevention products as a new trade growth point,resolve the supply and demand pressures faced by Chinese enterprises in the global industrial chain,and strengthen the trade integration relationship between China and the traditional markets such as the U.S.,the EU,Japan and South Korea,as well as the emerging markets,especially ASEAN.
作者
沈国兵
徐源晗
Shen Guobing;Xu Yuanhan
出处
《四川大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第4期75-90,共16页
Journal of Sichuan University：Philosophy and Social Science Edition
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目“我国拓展对外贸易行业产品多元化研究”(20AZD048)
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“行业生产网络下创新保护与中国企业外贸竞争力提升研究”(17JJD790002)。
关键词
新冠肺炎疫情
全球蔓延
出口
进口
全球产业链
COVID-19 pandemic
global spread
export
import
global industrial chain
