摘要
文章从出口贸易结构、贸易结合度和进出口商品结构的角度分析了“一带一路”对中国工业制成品贸易发展的影响。基于中国工业制成品贸易的主要流向和流量建立贸易引力模型对工业制成品贸易的影响因素进行分析,在传统引力模型的基础上增加了进出口国人口总数、进出口国的国内生产总值、进出口国国内铁路货运能力、是否同属于“一带一路”倡议、进出口国经济开放度、进口国关税负担、货币自由度等变量,并以中国对主要贸易伙伴的工业制成品贸易出口额为解释变量进行了实证检验。研究结果表明:距离因素和进口国关税负担对中国工业制成品贸易呈负相关的影响,而出口国GDP、进口国人数、贸易两国的经济开放度等因素都对中国工业制成品贸易呈正相关的影响。
The paper studies the impact of the“Belt and Road”initiative on the development of China’s industrial manufactured goods from the perspective of export trade structure,trade integration as well as import and export commodity structure.Based on the main flows and volumes of China’s industrial manufactured goods trade,the trade gravity model is used to analyze the factors affecting the trade of manufactured goods.In addition to the traditional gravity model,this paper introduces new variables,such as the total population of the importing and exporting country,the gross domestic product of the importing and exporting country,the domestic railway freight capacity of the importing and exporting country,whether it belongs to the“Belt and Road”initiative,the economic openness of the importing and exporting country,the tariff burden of the importing country,currency freedom,etc.An empirical test was conducted on the export value of China’s trade in manufactured goods to major trading partners.The results show that the distance factor and the tariff burden of the importing country have a negative impact on China’s industrial manufactured goods trade,while the exporting country’s GDP,the number of importing countries,and the economic openness of the two countries are all positively related to China’s industrial manufactured goods trade.
作者
徐大伟
郭鑫
冯浩
XU Dawei;GUO Xin;FENG Hao(School of Economics and Management, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China)
出处
《大连理工大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第4期29-37,共9页
Journal of Dalian University of Technology(Social Sciences)
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目:“基于企业异质性的汇率变动对中国制造业企业出口行为传递效应研究”(71403037)
国家自然科学基金面上项目:“辽东湾海域多源跨界生态环境利益补偿机制研究”(71974024)。
关键词
“一带一路”
工业制成品
引力模型
贸易出口额
显性比较优势指数
Belt and Road Initiative
industrial manufactured products
gravitational model
trade export
Dominant Comparative Advantage Index
