摘要
本文将投入产出结构分解技术与LMDI方法相结合,通过中国2002、2007、2012、2017年的投入产出表,分析了2002—2007年的经济快速增长期、2007—2012年的经济调整期以及2012—2017年中国经济进入“新常态”期的三个阶段,中国产业二氧化碳排放变动的主要影响因素。分析结果表明:(1)三个阶段中,伴随着经济增长,最终需求总量的扩张是中国产业二氧化碳排放增加最为主要的驱动因素;(2)各产业能耗强度的下降是二氧化碳减排的一个重要的影响因素,但随着时间的推移,其作用强度在逐渐减弱;(3)产业关联结构的变化在后两个时期对碳减排的作用越来越大;(4)虽然能源消费结构、最终使用结构的变化在后两个阶段起到了抑制二氧化碳排放的作用,但作用效果有限;(5)从产业视角看,能源工业与重制造业是中国产业二氧化碳排放的“大户”,但随着服务业的快速发展,服务业已在第三个阶段超越重制造业成为中国碳排放的第二大产业;(6)长期看,随着中国经济增长速度的下降,二氧化碳排放增速也会下降,但要让中国的碳排放由升转降,需要从根本上改变能源消费结构,降低化石能源消费比重;(7)中短期内,适度增加进口、抑制出口,调整进出口结构,调整三大化石能源消费结构;同时继续降低各产业,尤其是能源工业、重制造业以及越来越重要的服务业的能耗强度,是减缓中国产业二氧化碳排放增长的主要途径。
By incorporating LMDI method with the Input-Output Structural Decomposition Analysis,this article examine the major influence factors for the changes in China's industrial CO2 emissions during the following three stages:The rapid growth period from 2002 to 2007,The adjusting period from 2007 to 2012 and the“new normal”period from 2012 to 2017.The results show that:(1)expansion in the final demand,along with economic growth,contributed the most to the extra CO2 emissions in the three stages.(2)The decrease of industrial energy intensity was one of the most important influence factors of CO2 emission reduction,although its effect became weaker overtime.(3)The changes in industrial correlation structure have been reducing CO2 emission in the last two stages.(4)Although changes in energy consumption structure and the final demand structure have been reducing CO2 emission in the last two stages,its effects were still small.(5)From the industrial perspective,while the energy industries and the heavy manufacturing industries dominating the CO2 emission,the service industry has becoming another major contributor to the CO2 emission,especially in the third period.(6)In the long run,although the growth rate of CO2 emission will decline with the slowdown of China's economy,it is more important to reduce the share of fossil energy consumption in order to reverse the CO2 emission trends in China.(7)In the short term,in order to reduce the growth rate of CO2 emissions,it is necessary for China to increase import and decrease export moderately,and to adjust the structures of import and export as well as the consumption structure of the three major fossil energies.It is also necessary for us to continue to reduce the industrial energy intensity,especially in the energy industry,heavy manufacturing and service industry.
作者
潘毅凡
Yifan Pan(Beijing-Dublin International College,Beijing University of Technology)
出处
《经济学报》
CSSCI
2020年第2期139-161,共23页
China Journal of Economics
