摘要
提升国家级新区创新生态系统对外部冲击和扰动的抵御能力,有利于新区适应外部变化、实现高质量发展。基于韧性视角提出创新生态系统演化的韧性化理念,通过对比生态学和韧性双重理论视角下的创新生态系统演化过程,识别出包括多样性、流动性、缓冲性、进化性在内的四维韧性特征,构建了新区创新生态系统的韧性监测体系和预警模型。创新生态系统韧性化理念的提出有助于从内外部协调发展的角度把握新区未来发展的关键点,并更精准测度发展水平。进一步开展2015-2017年16个国家级新区创新生态系统韧性监测和预警的实证分析,结果表明:(1)从时间发展来看,各新区韧性值整体上呈现"V型"上升态势,韧性警情大体处于安全状态,说明我国新区具有一定的抵御外部冲击的能力,内外协调程度较好。(2)从空间分布来看,各新区韧性值呈现"一高两低"态势,反映出我国新区发展仍具有明显的地域分化现象。本文为创新生态系统韧性动态监测及预警提供了完整的解决方案,同时也可应用于其他新区或地区。
Enhancing the ability of the national new districts innovation ecosystem to resist external shocks and disturbances will help the new districts adapt to external changes and achieve high quality development.Based on the perspective of resilience,the concept of resilience of innovation ecosystem evolution is proposed.By comparing the evolution process of innovation ecosystem under the dual theory of ecology and resilience,four-dimensional resilience features including diversity,fluidity,cushioning and evolution are identified.The resilience monitoring system and early warning model of the innovation ecosystem of the new district were constructed.The concept of the resilience of the innovation ecosystem helps to grasp the key points of the future development of the new districts from the perspective of internal and external coordinated development,and to measure the development level more accurately.Further empirical analysis of the resilience monitoring and early warning of innovation ecosystems in 16 national new districts from 2015 to 2017 shows that:(1)From the perspective of time development,the toughness values of the new districts generally show a"V-shaped"upward trend,and the tough alarm is generally in a safe state,indicating that China’s national new districts have a certain ability to withstand external shocks,and internal and external coordination is better.(2)From the perspective of spatial distribution,the toughness values of the new districts show a"one high,two low"situation,reflecting that the development of new districts in China still has obvious regional differentiation.This paper provides a complete solution for the dynamic monitoring and early warning of the innovation ecosystem resilience in the new districts,and can also be applied to other new districts or regions.
作者
梁林
赵玉帛
刘兵
LIANG Lin;ZHAO Yu-bo;LIU Bing(School of Economics&Management,Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300401,China;The Institute for Jingjinji Area Development Studies,Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300401,China)
出处
《中国软科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第7期92-111,共20页
China Soft Science
基金
国家社会科学基金资助项目(18CGL019)。
关键词
国家级新区
创新生态系统
韧性监测体系
预警模型
national new district
innovation ecosystem
resilience monitoring system
early warning model
