摘要
为了解决当前煤层气开发中社会生态系统风险难以有效判定和防范不足的问题,提出了一种集成Choquet积分算子与Brusselator模型的风险动态演化模型。通过压力-状态-响应即PSR框架全面分析社会生态系统风险的影响因素并构建指标体系,结合耗散结构理论揭示社会生态系统风险是在压力和响应的非线性作用下系统不断自组织引起状态涨落突变的动态演化机制,利用Choquet积分算子计算压力和响应的评价值,进一步结合Brusselator模型的转义建立社会生态系统风险的动态演化模型以分析风险的演化路径,并运用该模型对沁水盆地郑庄煤层气开发区进行了案例分析。结果表明:该动态演化模型可识别系统风险防范中的不足,能判定风险的动态演化路径,可为煤层气开发中社会生态系统风险的科学防范提供参考。
In order to solve the problem that the current social-ecological system risk in CBM development was difficult to effectively judge and prevent,a risk dynamic evolution model integrating the Choquet integral operator and the Brusselator model was proposed.Through the pressure-state-response(PSR)framework,the influencing factors of social ecosystem risk were comprehensively analyzed and the index system was constructed.Combined with the theory of dissipative structure,it was revealed that the risk of social ecosystem was a dynamic evolutionary mechanism of state fluctuation mutation caused by the system’s continuous self-organization under the nonlinear action of pressure and response.The Choquet integral operator was used to calculate the evaluation value of pressure and response,and the dynamic evolution model of social-ecological system risk was established by further combining the escaping of Brusselator model to analyze the evolution path of risk.The case of Zhengzhuang CBM Development Zone in Qinshui Basin was analyzed by using this model.The results show that the dynamic evolution model can identify the deficiencies in system risk prevention and determine the risk dynamic evolution path,it can provide reference for scientific prevention of social ecosystem risk in CBM development.
作者
薛崇义
薛晔
纪晓东
XUE Chongyi;XUE Ye;JI Xiaodong(College of Economics and Management,Taiyuan University of Technology,Taiyuan 030024,China)
出处
《矿业安全与环保》
北大核心
2020年第4期116-121,共6页
Mining Safety & Environmental Protection
基金
国家软科学研究计划项目(2011GXS2D017)
山西省软科学基金项目(2017041025-2)
山西省高等学校人文社会科学重点研究基地项目(2017314)。
