摘要
研究目标:测度"新冠"疫情对经济产出的冲击以及政府干预对缓释疫情冲击的功能。研究方法:通过多部门可计算一般均衡模型,分析疫情对中国经济、产业、产业链等的冲击以及政府干预的政策效应。研究发现:劳动力供给和交通运输的冲击效应显著高于其他直接冲击。在总量上,乐观情景中GDP下降1.27%,悲观情景中GDP下降2.07%,政府干预情景中GDP下降缩小0.07%。从产业结构上,149个产业部门中大部分受冲击较为明显,其中第二产业冲击大于第三产业。研究创新:利用最新的投入产出表作为疫情经济冲击的基础;将政府干预纳入CGE模型之中,考量政府干预对疫情冲击的逆周期效应。研究价值:为"新冠"疫情的经济冲击提供量化参考,为政府干预的必要性、结构性和针对性等提供学术支持。
Research Objectives:This paper aims to measure the impact of COVID-19 on economic output and the function of government intervention on the epidemic.Research Methods:A computable general equilibrium model can be calculated through multiple sectors to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on the Chinese economy,industry and industrial chain,and the policy effects of government intervention.Research Findings:The study found that the shock effect of labor supply and transportation is significantly higher than the shock effect of risk premium and the decline in marginal consumption propensity.In terms of total volume,GDP fell by 1.27%in optimistic scenario where the epidemic evolved,GDP decreased by 2.07%in pessimistic scenario,and GDP decreased by 0.07%in government intervention scenario.In terms of industrial structure,most of the 149 industrial sectors have been significantly affected.Among them,the impact of the secondary industry is greater than that of tertiary industry.Research Innovations:This paper uses the latest input-output table as the economic impact,incorporating government intervention into the CGE model and considering the counter-cyclical effect of government intervention on the impact of COVID-19.Research Value:Provide quantitative reference for the impact of COVID-19 on economy,and provide academic support for the necessity,structural,and pertinence of government intervention.
作者
胡滨
范云朋
郑联盛
Hu Bin;Fan Yunpeng;Zheng Liansheng(Institute of Finance&Banking,CASS;Graduate School of UCASS)
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第9期42-61,共20页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
基金
国家社科基金项目“推进供给侧结构性改革过程中的金融政策研究”(17BJY183)的资助。
