摘要
根据贵州省18个气象站点1958—2012年5—8月的逐日降水数据,利用长、短周期旱涝急转指数、关联规则等方法,分析了贵州省烟草生长期内旱涝急转的时空演变特征。结果表明:生长期内长周期旱涝急转以旱转涝为主,且由西部向东部逐渐减少,LDFAI强度年际变化曲线以0.109/(10a)的速率下降,极端旱涝急转事件有减少的趋势;短周期旱涝急转事件转换频繁,其中,5—6月旱转涝、涝转旱发生次数均等,6—7月以涝转旱为主,7—8月以旱转涝为主,较强旱转涝的次数大于较强涝转旱的次数,但强度均有所降低。除东部地区外,其他区域各地市间旱转涝、涝转旱联动性均较强,尤其是置信度为100%的各地市间会同时发生旱涝急转事件,应及早采取相同的防范措施。这一分析结果为烟农防汛抗旱提供了有利的帮助。
According to the daily precipitation data of 18 meteorological stations in Guizhou Province from May to August,1958 to 2012,this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of sudden drought and flood change in the growth period of tobacco in Guizhou Province by the methods of long and short-period sudden drought and flood change index,association rules and so on.The results show that:During tobacco growth period,sudden change in long-period is mainly from drought to flood,and decreased gradually from west to east,the annual change curve of LDFAI intensity decreased at the rate of 0.109/(10a),and the extremely sudden drought and flood events tend to decrease;Sudden drought and flood change occurs frequently in short period,the number of drought to flood and flood to drought events is equal from May to June,the flood to drought occurs mainly from June to July,and the drought to flood occurs mainly from July to August,the number of strong drought to flood events is greater than that of strong flood to drought events,but the intensity is decreased;Except for the eastern region,other regions and cities have a strong linkage between drought to flood and flood to drought,especially the cities with confidence of 100%will go through sudden drought and flood change at the same time,so they should take the same preventive measures in advance.The analysis results provide a favorable help for tobacco farmers in flood control and drought relief.
作者
彭高辉
刘振涛
王超
徐晨辉
吴莉娟
张泽中
PENG Gaohui;LIU Zhentao;WANG Chao;XU Chenhui;WU Lijuan;ZHANG Zezhong(School of Mathematics and Statistics,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450046,China;School of Water Conservancy,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450046,China)
出处
《人民珠江》
2020年第10期50-57,共8页
Pearl River
基金
国家社会科学基金(19BGL224)
贵州省水利厅科技项目(KT201705)
国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(201910078013)。
关键词
旱涝急转
MANN-KENDALL检验
长、短周期旱涝急转指数
时空分析
关联规则
sudden drought-flood change
Mann-Kendall test
long and short-period sudden drought-flood change index
spatio-temporal analysis
association rules
