摘要
可再生能源产业的发展及研究对我国经济发展意义重大。利用1978~2017年的时间序列数据,通过协整检验、建立VECM模型分析出实际GDP、可再生能源消费间存在协整关系,并将可再生能源消费量的短期波动对实际GDP增长的影响情况反映出来、得到短期偏离长期均衡的修正机制;同时借助格兰杰因果关系检验发现长期范围内,可再生能源消费是GDP增长的格兰杰原因。因此,在未来,可再生能源消费是经济增长的一大源泉。从推动可再生能源市场实际需求、加大技术研发投入、完善产业政策等方面提出了一系列促进可再生能源产业发展的对策建议。
The development and research of renewable energy industry is of great significance to the economic development of our country.Using the time series data from 1978~2017,we analyzed the integration relationship between real GDP and renewable energy consumption through cointegration test and VECM model.The influence of short-term fluctuation of renewable energy consumption on the growth of real GDP,is reflected and the correction mechanism of short-term deviation from long-term equilibrium is obtained.At the same time,the granger causality test finds that in the long run,renewable energy consumption is the granger cause of GDP growth.Therefore,in the future,renewable energy consumption is a major source of GDP growth.This paper puts forward a series of countermeasures and suggestions to promote the development of renewable energy industry from the aspects of promoting the actual demand of renewable energy market,increasing investment in technology research,and improving industrial policies.
作者
李鹏雁
许文秀
LI Peng-yan;XU Wen-xiu(School of Humanities, Social Sciences and Law, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, China;Qiuzhen School,Huzhou University,Huzhou 313000,China)
出处
《节能技术》
CAS
2020年第4期365-370,共6页
Energy Conservation Technology
