摘要
为明确草地贪夜蛾Spodoptera frugiperda入侵是否会对我国小麦生产造成较大影响,通过从文献及国家统计局、中国粮油信息网收集草地贪夜蛾在我国的为害及防治相关数据与小麦的种植面积、产量及价格等相关数据的基础上,利用随机模型@RISK分别预测其在不防治场景与防治场景下对我国小麦产业造成的潜在经济损失。结果显示,如果在草地贪夜蛾入侵我国后不进行防治场景下,其对小麦生产造成的潜在经济损失总量的90%置信区间为1 023.44亿~5 299.79亿元,此情景下草地贪夜蛾对小麦的为害率是影响我国小麦产业潜在经济损失最大的变量;而在草地贪夜蛾入侵后投入防治场景下,其对小麦生产造成的潜在经济损失总量的90%置信区间为109.24亿~631.66亿元,单位面积防治成本是影响我国小麦产业潜在经济损失的关键输入变量;可挽回的经济损失总量的90%置信区间为779.07亿~4 903.97亿元,对其影响最大的变量是草地贪夜蛾对小麦的为害率。表明在草地贪夜蛾入侵我国的现实条件下,应积极增强对草地贪夜蛾的防控力度,以降低其对我国小麦产业造成的潜在经济损失。
To find out whether the invasion of the fall armyworm(FAW) Spodoptera frugiperda has a great impact on the Chinese wheat production, the data related to the damage and control of fall armyworm in China, plant area, yield of wheat and price data of wheat were collected from literatures and the National Bureau of Statistics and China Grain and Oil Information Network, and the potential economic loss of the Chinese wheat industry was predicted by using the random model @RISK under the scenarios of non-control and control. The results showed that under non-control scenario, after the invasion, the potential economic loss of Chinese wheat caused by fall armyworm was 102.344 billion-529.979 billion Yuan(90% confidence interval), and the damage rate of wheat by fall armyworm was the key variable affecting the potential economic loss of wheat industry in China. Under control scenario, the potential loss was 10.924 billion-63.166 billion Yuan(90% confidence interval), and the control cost per unit area for fall armyworm was the key input variable;the potential economic loss that can be retrieved after investment was 77.907 billion-490.397 billion Yuan(90% confidence interval), and the key variable was the damage rate of wheat by fall armyworm. The results suggested that, under the current invasion conditions, the control of the fall armyworm should be strengthened to reduce the potential economic loss to the wheat industry.
作者
徐艳玲
李昭原
陈杰
李志红
秦誉嘉
XU Yanling;LI Zhaoyuan;CHEN Jie;LI Zhihong;QIN Yujia(Department of Entomology,College of Plant Protection,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100193,China)
出处
《植物保护学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第4期740-746,共7页
Journal of Plant Protection
基金
国家重点研发计划(2018YFE0108700)。
