摘要
基于2011~2017年15个国家新能源汽车销量的面板数据,考察了技术进步对新能源汽车(NEV)需求的影响,并且在技术细分和车型细分的基础上进一步实证研究了电池技术、电驱技术、电控技术三类细分技术进步分别对于纯电动汽车(BEV)和插电式混合动力汽车(PHEV)市场需求的影响,研究结果显示:(1)2011~2017年间,技术水平的提高显著提高了新能源汽车的需求,一国新能源汽车专利授予数量每增加1%,该国新能源汽车销量就会增加1.18%。(2)新能源汽车专利授予数量对新能源汽车需求的积极影响存在时滞,专利授予数量滞后一期对新能源汽车销量的影响更为明显。(3)从技术细分来看,三类细分技术专利授予数量的增加都正向提高了新能源汽车的市场需求。其中,电池技术专利授予数量的增加对于增加新能源汽车销量的作用最为明显。此外,三种技术改进的不匹配是导致新能源汽车无法大规模采用的重要原因之一。(4)分车型来看,对于BEV而言,电池技术的改进对其销量提高的影响最大;对于PHEV来说,电驱技术的进步对其销量提高的作用最明显。
Based on panel data of NEV sales in 15 countries from 2011 to 2017,this article examines the impact of technological progress on NEVs demand,and on the basis of technology segmentation and vehicle model segmentation,further empirical research on the impact of battery technology,electric drive technology and electronic control technology on the BEV and PHEV market demand.The research results show that:(1) Between 2011 and 2017,the improvement in technical level has significantly improved NEVs.The demand for NEV patents in a country increases by 1%,the country’s NEV sales will increase by 1.18%.(2) There is a time lag in the positive impact of the number of NEV patents granted on NEV demand.(3) The increase in the number of patent grants for the three types of technology is positively increasing market demand for NEVs.Among them,the increase in the number of battery technology patent grants has the most obvious effect on increasing the sales of NEVs.In addition,the mismatch of the three technological improvements is one of the important reasons that prevents NEVs from being adopted on a large scale.(4)For BEV,the increase in the number of battery technology patent grants has the greatest impact on the increase in sales;For PHEV,the increase in the number of electric drive technology patent grants has the most obvious effect on the increase in sales.
作者
李晓敏
杨娇娇
刘毅然
LI Xiao-min;YANG Jiao-jiao;LIU Yi-ran(School of Economics,Henan University,Kaifeng 475004;Institute of Digital Inclusive Finance,Henan University,Kaifeng 475004)
出处
《软科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第10期12-17,共6页
Soft Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71803181)
河南省社会科学规划项目(2017 BJJ018)。
