摘要
为了有效控制配电网运营成本和提高效益,针对新一轮电力体制改革的深入改革,区域配电网全寿命周期成本优化已成为一个重要研究方向。本文首先借助系统动力学模型分析了配电网复杂成本构成和筛选了影响成本的关键因子,并采用改进的蒙特卡法对关键影响因子进行混合抽样,得出配电网各关键因子对区域配电网全寿命周期成本影响的综合灵敏度系数;其次,建立了以关键影响因子对配电网全寿命周期成本总影响量最小为目标的成本优化模型,以及提出了GAACS组合算法对模型进行求解;最后,选取了某省的10千伏配电网区域进行了实例分析,结果表明,经济条件对配电网成本影响最大,以及技术条件差的区域降低成本能力较大。
In order to effectively control the operation cost and increase the benefits of distribution network,and in response to the in-depth reform of the new round of power system reform,the optimization of the life cycle cost of the regional distribution network has become an important research direction.This paper firstly analyzes the complex cost structure of the distribution network and screens the key factors that affect the cost,with the help of a system dynamics model.The improved Monte Carlo method is used to sample the key factors and obtain the comprehensive sensitivity coefficients which have impacts on the full life cycle cost of the power grid.Secondly,a cost optimization model is established,with the minimum influence degree of the key factors on the full life cycle cost of the distribution network as the objective function,and a GAACS combination algorithm is proposed to solve the model.Finally,a 10kV distribution network area in a certain province is selected for an example analysis.The results show that economic conditions have the greatest impact on the cost of the distribution network,and areas with poor technical conditions have a greater ability to reduce costs.
作者
刘志伟
董力通
谷志红
齐慧文
陈英华
葛艳琴
Liu Zhiwei;Dong Litong;Gu Zhihong;Qi Huiwen;Chen Yinghua;Ge Yanqin(State Grid Shanxi Provincial Electric Power Company Economic and Technological Research Institute,Taiyuan 030000,China;State Grid Economic and Technological Research Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 102209,China)
出处
《技术经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第10期27-37,共11页
Journal of Technology Economics
基金
国家电网总部科技项目“配电网资产全寿命周期管理综合绩效评价及设备配置优化技术研究”(B3442019K001)。
关键词
配电网成本
改进蒙特卡洛法
灵敏性分析
GAACS组合算法
distribution network cost
improved Monte Carlo method
sensitivity analysis
GAACS combination algorithm
