摘要
目的探讨沈阳市2014—2017年大气PM2.5污染与居民循环系统疾病死亡之间的关系。方法分析沈阳市2014—2017年PM2.5污染特征、气象特征以及居民循环系统疾病死亡水平,采用广义线性模型分析大气PM2.5对居民循环系统疾病死亡的影响。结果循环系统疾病死亡人数与气压、大气PM2.5、PM10、SO2和O3-8 h浓度呈正相关,相关系数分别为0.284、0.178、0.155、0.244和0.118;与温度和NO2呈负相关,相关系数分别为-0.327和-0.234。单污染物模型中,PM2.5在当天浓度每升高10μg/m^3对全体人群、女性和老年人循环系统疾病死亡的ER值分别为0.24%(95%CI:0.06%,0.42%)、0.40%(95%CI:0.13%,0.67%)和0.23%(95%CI:0.03%,0.43%);双污染物模型中,PM2.5与PM10联合作用,对全体人群循环系统死亡人数影响最大,混合污染物每升高10μg/m3对全体人群循环系统疾病死亡的ER值为0.48%(95%CI:0.07%,0.89%);多污染物模型中,混合污染物为PM2.5+PM10+NO2+SO2+O3、PM2.5+PM10+NO2+O3、PM2.5+PM10+SO2+O3和PM2.5+PM10+O3组合时对循环系统死亡的影响最大,四种组合的混合污染物浓度每升高10μg/m3对全体人群循环系统疾病死亡的ER值分别为0.57%(95%CI:0.16%,0.99%)、0.57%(95%CI:0.16%,0.98%)、0.57%(95%CI:0.16%,0.99%)和0.57%(95%CI:0.16%,0.98%)。结论循环系统疾病死亡率会随着PM2.5浓度升高而增加。PM2.5与其他污染物联合作用时对循环系统疾病死亡人数的影响最大。
Objective To explore the relationship of atmospheric fine particulate matter(PM2.5)pollution with death due to circulatory system diseases in residents in Shenyang City from 2014 to 2017.Methods We analyzed the characteristics of PM2.5 pollution,meteorological features and death level of circulatory system diseases in residents in Shenyang City from 2014 to 2017.The generalized linear model was used to analyze the impact of atmospheric PM2.5 on death of circulatory system diseases in the residents.Results The number of deaths caused by circulatory system diseases was positively correlated with barometric pressure and concentration levels of PM2.5,PM10,SO2 and O3-8 h,with the correlation coefficients of 0.284,0.178,0.155,0.244 and 0.118,respectively,but negatively correlated with temperature and NO2,with the correlation coefficients of-0.327 and-0.234,respectively.In the single-pollutant model,the ER values of deaths from circulatory system diseases in entire population,women and the elderly were 0.24%(95%CI:0.06%-0.42%),0.40%(95%CI:0.13%-0.67%)and 0.23%(95%CI:0.03%-0.43%)with rise of 10μg/m^3 for PM2.5 concentration on the day of the test.In the dual-pollutant model,PM2.5 combined with PM10 had the biggest impact on the number of deaths due to circulatory system diseases in entire population.When the mixed pollutants increased by 10μg/m3,the ER value of deaths from circulatory system diseases in entire population was 0.48%(95%CI:0.07%-0.89%).In the multi-pollutant model,the mixed pollutants,including PM2.5+PM10+NO2+SO2+O3,PM2.5+PM10+NO2+O3,PM2.5+PM10+SO2+O3 and PM2.5+PM10+O3,had the biggest impact on deaths from circulatory system diseases.When the concentration of the four mixed pollutants increased by 10μg/m3,the ER values of deaths from circulatory system diseases in entire population were 0.57%(95%CI:0.16%-0.99%),0.57%(95%CI:0.16%-0.98%),0.57%(95%CI:0.16%-0.99%)and 0.57%(95%CI:0.16%-0.98%),respectively.Conclusions The mortality rate of circulatory system diseases was elevated along with the increased concentration of PM2.5.The combination of PM2.5 and other pollutants had the greatest impact on the number of deaths owing to circulatory system diseases.
作者
刘超
蒋守芳
符文华
秦萌
刘肖
佟俊旺
LIU Chao;JIANG Shou-fang;FU Wen-hua;QIN Meng;LIU Xiao;TONG Jun-wang(Hebei Provincial Laboratory for Coal Mine Health and Safety,School of Public Health,North China University of Science and Technology,Tangshan,Hebei 063210,China;Shenyang Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shenyang,Liaoning 110031,China)
出处
《实用预防医学》
CAS
2021年第1期10-14,共5页
Practical Preventive Medicine
基金
沈阳市科技计划项目(F14-158-9-018)。
关键词
PM2.5
循环系统疾病
广义线性模型
fine particulate matter
circulatory system disease
generalized linear model
