摘要
正确评估农业旱灾风险可为防灾减灾规划提供辅助决策依据。针对现有旱灾风险评估模型不能充分融合时间元素的问题,以面板数据矩阵表征为出发点,结合样本行为矩阵的位移关联度、速度关联度和加速度关联度,构建了基于面板数据的灰色C型关联模型。对比分析表明,该模型简单有效且不受指标排列顺序的影响。将模型应用于豫北平原5个地区的农业旱灾风险分析中,评估结果与实际相符,进一步证明了模型的合理性。该模型为区域农业干旱灾害风险评估提供了新方法。
A correct assessment of agricultural drought risk can provide an auxiliary decision-making basis for disaster prevention and mitigation planning.In view of the problem that the existing drought risk assessment models cannot fully integrate the time elements,a grey C-type correlation model based on panel data is constructed based on the panel data matrix representation,combining with the displacement correlation degree,velocity correlation degree and acceleration correlation degree of the sample behavior matrix.The comparative analysis shows that the model is simple and effective,and is not affected by the order of indicators.The model is applied to the agricultural drought risk analysis of five areas in the northern Henan Plain,and the evaluation results are consistent with the actual situation,which further proves the rationality of the model.The research provides a new method for regional agricultural drought disaster risk assessment.
作者
罗党
李晶
LUO Dang;LI Jing(North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450046,China)
出处
《华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）》
2020年第6期47-53,共7页
Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power：Natural Science Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51979106)
河南省科技攻关计划项目(182102310014)
河南省高等学校重点科研项目(18A630030)
河南省研究生教育优质课程建设项目(灰色系统理论:HNYJS2015KC02)。
关键词
面板数据
C型关联分析
农业干旱灾害风险
panel data
C-type correlation analysis
agricultural drought disaster risk
