摘要
为分析电动自行车越线行为产生的机理,建立了基于生存分析的越线风险模型,以评估各影响因素下电动自行车的越线风险。通过应用越线车速作为自变量,建立生存函数明确越线车速与累积越线比例的关系;应用Kaplan-Meier非参数回归分别分析非机动车道宽度、相邻机动车道交通流状况对越线速度的影响,建立COX比例风险模型获取上述影响因素下电动自行车越线的相对越线风险值。通过对西安市不同宽度和交通流状况的道路实测数据的分析,得出结论。研究结果表明:越线风险可通过电动自行车的车速体现,当车速从20增长到35 km/h时,累积生存比例从71.2%快速下降至16.4%;非机动车道宽度及相邻机动车道交通流状态对越线速度影响显著,非机动车道宽度为260和220cm道路的车辆越线风险分别为180cm道路的0.688倍和0.859倍,自由状态车辆越线的风险为非自由状态的2.445倍,高密度非机动车道的越线风险是低密度状态的2.590倍。研究结果可为含电动自行车的混合交通流环境下的交通设计及交通管理提供理论依据。
In order to analyze the generation mechanism of lane transgressing behavior of electric bicycles,a lane transgressing risk model based on survival analysis was established to evaluate the lane transgressing risk of electric bicycles under various influence factors.The survival function,in which the lane transgressing speed was taken as an independent variable,was established to determine the interaction between lane transgressing speed and cumulative lane transgressing ratio.Kaplan-Meyer non-parametric regression was utilized to analyze the influence of the width of non-motorized vehicle lane and the traffic flow condition of adjacent motorway on lane transgressing speed respectively.COX proportional hazard model was established to obtain the relative risk value of electric bicycle transgressing lane under the above factors.Through the analysis of the measured data of roads with different widths and traffic flow conditions in Xi'an,the conclusion was drawn.The research results indicate that the lane transgressing risk can be represented by the speed of electric bicycles.The cumulative survival ratio drops rapidly from 71.2%to 16.4%while the speed increases from 20 km/h to 35 km/h.The widths of the non-motorized lane and the traffic flow condition of adjacent motorized lane have significant influence on lane transgressing speed.The risk of vehicle transgressing lane at road section of 260cm and 220cm non-motorized lane is 0.688 times and 0.859 times of 180 cm road,respectively.The risk of vehicle transgressing lane in free state is 2.445 times of that in non-free state,and that of high density non-motorized lane is 2.590 times of that in low density state.The conclusions can provide a theoretical basis for traffic design and traffic management in mixed traffic flow environment with electric bicycles.
作者
李岩
南斯睿
胡文斌
汪帆
陈宽民
LI Yan;NAN Sirui;HU Wenbin;WANG Fan;CHEN Kuanmin(College of Transportation Engineering,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710064,Shaanxi,China;School of Transportation,Southeast University,Nanjing 211189,Jiangsu,China;New Road Traffic Engineering Co.,Ltd.,of Gansu Road and Bridge Construction Group,Lanzhou 730030,Gansu,China)
出处
《重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第2期13-20,共8页
Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science)
基金
国家重点研发项目(2017YFC0803906)
国家自然科学基金项目(51408049)
中国博士后科学基金项目(2016M590914)
陕西省博士后科研项目(2016BSHEDZZ134)。
关键词
交通工程
越线行为机理
电动自行车
生存分析
Kaplan-Meier非参数回归
COX比例风险模型
transportation engineering
mechanism of lane transgressing behavior
electric bicycle
survival analysis
Kaplan-Meier non-parametric regression
COX proportional hazards model
