摘要
工业革命对能源与金属资源需求具有深刻的影响。基于美国历次工业革命的技术进步、产业变革、能源与金属资源消费量变化,分析了工业革命驱动下能源与金属资源需求演变特征,研判了新一轮工业革命技术创新、产业变革与能源、金属资源需求变化趋势。结果表明:美国前三次工业革命主要依靠化石燃料为动力,但是经济增长所需的化石燃料消费增速不断下降,第三次工业革命之后经济增长与化石燃料消费增长逐渐脱钩;随着历次工业革命的推进,产业结构发生重大变革,越来越多的金属进入工业经济,金属消费趋势出现分化。近年来,以信息技术深度与全面应用为核心的新一轮技术革命正在兴起。新信息技术、新能源技术、新材料技术等或将推动产业结构发生重大变革,产业发展所需的资源将随之发生变化。预计未来能源消费中清洁、无污染、可再生新能源比例将不断增大,化石燃料比例将不断降低;稀有金属消费或将迎来快速增长期,传统大宗金属消费仍将在中高位波动。面对新一轮工业革命,我国可采取低碳与无碳并举的能源消费转型策略,加强化石能源清洁化技术和清洁、无污染、可再生新能源技术研发;坚持构建国内国外金属资源供给体系,提升我国金属资源的全球控制力和话语权;加强优势稀有金属矿产品的深度研发,拓宽匮乏稀有金属的境外来源。
Industrial revolutions have a profound impact on energy and metal demand.Based on technological improvement,industrial transformation,and changes of energy and metal consumption in the United States,this paper identified the evolution characteristics of energy and metal demand driven by industrial revolutions,and analyzed the trends of energy and metal demand driven by the fourth industrial revolution which is happening currently.Results indicated that fossil fuels were the major energy sources which boosted up the past three industrial revolutions,whereas their consumption increased at a slowing pace as the economy was growing continually;after the third industrial revolution,the consumption of fossil fuels decoupled gradually with the economic growth.As the industrial structure transformed as the industrial revolutions went on,more and more metals were used in the industries,and the consumption of different metals showed different trends.In recent years,a new technological revolution has surged mainly driven by the overall application of new information technologies.The technological advance in information,new energies,new materials,etc.,will speed up the industrial transformation and exert a deep effect on the demand of energy and metals.It can be inferred that the ratio of clean,non-polluting,renewable energy will rise while the ratio of fossil fuels will drop in the energy demand,and the demand of rare metals will perhaps enter a fast-growing period,while the demand of traditional bulk metals will fluctuate at mid-high levels.Following the new industrial revolution,China should adopt an energy transition strategy of developing low-carbon and free-carbon technologies simultaneously,reinforce the domestic and international metal supply system with the aim of enhancing global controlling capability,strengthen the deep development of rich rare metals and broaden the overseas supply channels of scare rare metals.
作者
杨建锋
余韵
马腾
张翠光
王泉
YANG Jianfeng;YU Yun;MA Teng;ZHANG Cuiguang;WANG Quan(Development Research Center of China Geology Survey,Beijing 100037,China)
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第12期45-54,共10页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
中国地质调查局地质调查项目“全国地质勘查进展与行业形势监测评估”(批准号:DD20190669)。
关键词
技术进步
工业革命
能源
金属资源
演变趋势
technological improvement
industrial revolution
energy
metal resources
evolution
