摘要
基于1990—2018年云南省云南松分布区气象数据和森林火灾数据,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法、对比分析法以及相关性分析研究气象指标与森林火灾的动态变化趋势和响应规律。结果表明:(1)防火期平均气温在1998—2018年达显著上升水平,年均与防火期的平均相对湿度均在1995—2018年达显著下降水平;年均及防火期的平均风速均在1995—2004年达显著下降水平,防火期平均风速在2010-2018年达显著上升水平;(2)年均气温和相对湿度、防火期降水量和平均相对湿度呈下降趋势,其他气象指标呈上升趋势;(3)各气象指标对森林火灾的影响强度为年均气温>防火期平均气温>防火期平均相对湿度>年均相对湿度,4个指标均达到极显著水平(P<0.01);(4)火灾气象指标评价得分总体呈上升趋势;(5)云南松火灾次数年际波动较大,总体呈下降趋势,1990—2010年火灾次数增加,2011—2018年明显减少。
Based on Pinus yunnanensis distribution area meteorological data and fire data from 1990 to 2018,the Mann-Kendall trend method,comparative analysis and correlation analysis were used to analyze dynamic change trend of climate and forest fire.The results showed that(1)The average temperature of fire prevention period reached significantly increased from 1998 to 2018.The average relative humidity of annual and fire prevention period significantly decreased from 1995 to 2018,and its wind speed significantly declined from 1995 to 2004,and average wind speed of fire prevention period significantly increased from 2010 to 2018.(2)The annual average temperature and relative humidity,the precipitation and average relative humidity of fire prevention period showed a downward trend,and other meteorological indicators showed an upward trend.(3)The impact intensity of each meteorological indicator on forest fires showed a order of annual average temperature>annual average temperature of fire prevention period>average relative humidity of fire prevention period>annual average relative humidity,all four indicators reached the most significant level(P<0.01).(4)The evaluation scores of fire meteorological indicators showed an overall upward trend.(5)The number of P.yunnanensis fires interannually fluctuated larger in Yunnan,and showed a general downward trend.The number of fires increased from 1989 to 2010,and significantly decreased from 2011 to 2018.
作者
高仲亮
魏建珩
龙腾腾
李智
周汝良
舒立福
王秋华
GAO Zhong-liang;WEI Jian-heng;LONG Teng-teng;LI Zhi;ZHOU Ru-liang;SHU Li-fu;WANG Qiu-hua(Civil Engineering college,Southwest Forestry University,Kunming Yunnan 650224,P.R.China;Institute of Forest Ecological Environment and Protection,CAF,Beijing 100091,P.R.China)
出处
《西部林业科学》
CAS
北大核心
2021年第1期12-18,共7页
Journal of West China Forestry Science
基金
国家地区基金(31860214,31660210,31960318),西南林业大学科研启动基金项目(111437)。
关键词
森林火灾
气候变化
云南松
防火期
响应规律
forest fire
climate change
Pinus yunnanensis
fire prevention period
response law
