摘要
新冠肺炎疫情的发展正值我国每年规模最大的人口迁徙“春运”时期,人员流动性激增客观上加大了疫情传播的风险和防控难度。本文针对本次新冠肺炎疫情下人口迁徙的过程,根据累计病例数量和新增病例数量建立风险系数,并结合基于百度迁徙数据的OD比例矩阵构成各地迁徙输入型风险指数,以评估疫情期间人口迁徙的风险;结合相应的风险,对比了各地区和省份相应的疫情风险防范策略。结果发现,从风险评估上看,湖北省是疫情初始发源地,作为新冠疫情的重灾区,风险等级最高;湖北周边4个省份湖南、河南、江西、重庆以及确诊病例较多的广东、浙江都属于高风险区域。从风险应对策略上看,东南部省份如浙江省、广东省等,疫情防控策略是积极主动灵活的,其他省份则呈现出保守的特征。
The epidemic of COVID-19 coincides with the Spring Festival,which is the largest annual population migration in China.The surging mobility of people has increased the risk of the epidemic spread and the difficulty of prevention and control.This paper aims at the process of large-scale population migration under the COVID-19,which not only establishes the risk coefficients based on cumulative number of cases and new cases,but also combines the OD ratio matrix based on Baidu migration data to form a migration input risk index in various regions,in an effort to assess the risk of population migration during the epidemic.The epidemic risk prevention strategies under various regions and provinces have been investigated according to the corresponding risks.It is verified that Hubei Province is the origin of the epidemic with the highest level of risk,as a result from being the worst-hit area of the COVID-19.Four provinces and cities which surround Hubei are proved to be high-risk areas due to the large number of confirmed cases,including Hunan,Henan,Jiangxi,and Chongqing,as well as Guangdong and Zhejiang.From the perspective of risk coping strategies,the epidemic prevention and control strategies of the Southeastern provinces such as Zhejiang and Guangdong,are proactive and flexible,while the regulations of other provinces featured in conservativeness.
作者
冯宗宪
段丁允
刘源
FENG Zongxian;DUAN Dingyun;LIU Yuan(School of Economics and Finance,Xi’an Jiaotong University,Xi’an 710061,China)
出处
《西安理工大学学报》
CAS
北大核心
2020年第4期439-446,共8页
Journal of Xi'an University of Technology
基金
国家社会科学基金重点资助项目(19AJY001)。
