摘要
半潜式钻井平台的系统可靠性是保证其正常进行安全生产作业的重要指标。当前,国内对半潜式平台的可靠性研究主要集中于平台结构的可靠性上,对平台系统可靠性少有涉猎,并且传统可靠性分析方法难以定量分析某个设备的失效对系统可靠性的影响。文章提出应用贝叶斯网络法来进行半潜式钻井平台系统可靠性分析,通过设备间的依赖关系来确定网络结构和节点参数,建立贝叶斯网络模型并计算出系统可靠度,再对钻井系统进行故障诊断,推算钻井系统中各个根节点的后验概率,并成功找出钻井系统中的最薄弱环节为顶驱装置(TDS),从而有针对性的对顶驱装置进行优化,可以有效提升半潜式钻井平台系统可靠性。
The system reliability of semi-submersible drilling platform is an important index to ensure the safe operation of the platform.At present,the domestic research on the reliability of semi-submersible platform mainly focuses on the reliability of platform structure.There are few studies on platform system reliability.Also,traditional reliability analysis methods are difficult to quantitatively analyze the impact of a certain equipment failure on system reliability.In this paper,the Bayesian network is applied to analyze the reliability of semi-submersible drilling platform system.The network structure and node parameters are determined by dependencies between devices.The Bayesian network is established,and the system reliability is calculated.Afterwards,the posterior probability of each root node in the drilling system is calculated.Eventually,after troubleshooting the drilling system to find out that top-drive drilling system is the weak link in the drilling system,it can effectively improve the reliability of the drilling system by optimizing the TDS.
作者
罗小芳
白旭
汤荣铿
孙丽萍
金辉
LUO Xiaofang;BAI Xu;TANG Rongkeng;SUN Liping;JIN Hui(Jiangsu University of Science and Technology,School of Economics and Management,Jiangsu Zhenjiang 212003,China;Jiangsu University of Science and Technology,School of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering,Jiangsu Zhenjiang 212003,China;College of Shipbuilding Engineering,Harbin Engineering University,Harbin 150001,China)
出处
《船舶工程》
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第11期118-123,共6页
Ship Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金(71601087)
江苏省“六大人才高峰”高层次人才资助项目(2018-KTHY-033)
“第七代超深水钻井平台(船)”创新专项。
关键词
半潜式钻井平台系统
贝叶斯网络
可靠性分析
系统可靠度
故障诊断
semi-submersible drilling platform system
Bayesian network
reliability analysis
system reliability
fault diagnosis
