摘要
基于2005—2017年中国30个省级数据,采用超效率SBM模型测算了省际农业生态效率,建立了以农村劳动力转移为门槛变量的面板门槛模型,以考察农村人口老龄化对农业生态效率的非线性影响,并且进行了效应机制和分地区检验,结果显示:①农村人口老龄化对农业生态效率总体上呈现负效应,这种负相关随着劳动力转移阶段的变化呈现先下降,逐渐趋于不显著,最后又上升的现象;②在农村人口老龄化对农业生态效率的促减效应机制检验中13.60%是通过土地规模减小的中介效应引起的,24.43%是由于农村人力资本下降引起的,通过机械化水平提高可以抵消一部分(55.36%)农村人口老龄化对农业生态效率的负向效应;③东部地区农村劳动力转移低于64.45%时,农村人口老龄化对农业生态效率的负向效应还未显现;中部地区总体上也呈现负相关,并且这种负效应先增加后减少;西部地区的负效应在跨越第三个门槛值前均呈现逐渐降低的趋势;东北地区在跨过门槛值42.11%后,农村人口老龄化对农业生态效率的负效应又有所提高。
Based on the 30 provincial data of China from 2005 to 2017,the super efficient SBM model was used to measure the inter-provincial agricultural eco-efficiency,and a panel threshold model with rural labor transfer as the threshold variable was established to investigate the impact of rural population aging on agricultural eco-efficiency.Non-linear effects,and the effect mechanism and sub-regional tests were carried out.The results show that:①The aging of the rural population has a negative effect on agricultural ecological efficiency as a whole.This negative correlation decreases with the change of the labor transfer stage,then it tends to be not significant,and finally increases;②In the aging on efficiency reduction mechanism tests,13.60%of the reduction were caused by the intermediary effect of the land size reduction;24.43%were caused by the decline in rural human capital due to the aging population;and a part(55.56%)of impact on agricultural ecological efficiency by population aging could be offset by mechanization;③When the rural labor transfer in the eastern region is less than 64.45%,the negative impact of the aging has not yet manifested;the central region as a whole also shows a negative correlation,and this the negative effect increases first and then decreases;the negative effect in the western region shows a gradual decrease trend before crossing the third threshold;for the northeast region,after crossing the threshold of 42.11%,the negative impact of aging on ecological efficiency has again increased.
作者
李露
徐维祥
LI Lu;XU Wei-xiang(School of Economics,Zhejiang University of Technology,Hangzhou 310023,China)
出处
《华南农业大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第2期14-29,共16页
Journal of South China Agricultural University(Social Science Edition)
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(18ZDA045)。
关键词
劳动力转移
老龄化
农业生态效率
土地规模化
rural labor transfer
aging
agricultural ecological efficiency
farmland scale management
