摘要
石化行业的压缩机、泵等动设备故障模式多样,故障概率的不确定性较大,常用的风险评估方法无法实现对石化行业动设备失效概率的定量评估,限制了设备安全管理的准确性和有效性。基于贝叶斯网络(BN)可定量计算复杂系统失效概率的特点,利用故障模式与影响分析(FMEA)方法获取动设备风险事件的因果关系,将其映射为BN,并利用BN中节点的多态性,表征动设备子系统及零部件故障模式的多样性;利用模糊概率子集替代边缘概率精确值,表征了动设备零部件故障概率的不确定性,并提出可行的条件概率判断方法,从而形成了石化行业动设备失效概率的定量评估方法;最后以某站场的往复式压缩机为例,对建立的定量风险评估方法进行了实例应用。结果表明:气阀和气缸出现半故障的失效概率较大,分别为0.0040和0.0045;该类型压缩机故障时,阀片或弹簧损坏和轴瓦松动的可能性较大,其后验概率分别为1.15×10^(-5)和9.92×10^(-6),符合实际情况,验证了该方法的有效性和可行性。
Compressors,pumps,and other mechanical equipments in the petrochemistry industry have diverse failure modes and uncertain failure probability.Therefore the commonly methods cannot achieve quantitative assessment of failure probability,which limits the accuracy and effectiveness of risk control and maintenance.Based on the characteristics of Bayesian network(BN)that can quantitatively calculate the failure probability of complex systems,this paper uses Failure Mode and Effects Analysis(FMEA)to get the relationship between risk events of mechanical equipments and map it to BN.Furthermore,the paper adopts the polymorphism of BN nodes to characterize the diverse failure modes of subsystems and components.Finally,the paper uses the fuzzy probability subset to replace the exact value of the edge probability to express the uncertainty,and proposes a feasible method of conditional probability judgment.Thus,a quantitative failure probability assessment method of the mechanical equipments in oil and gas stations is formed.Finally,the paper conducts a case study by analyzing a reciprocating compressor in a natural gas station with the method,showing that the failure probability of gas valve and cylinder are 0.0040 and 0.0045 respectively;the probability of sheet and spring damage and the bush loose are 1.15×10^(-5) and 9.92×10^(-6) when the compressor fails,which confirms to the reality verifying the validity and feasibility of the method.
作者
黄艾丹
李长俊
吴瑕
王玉江
HUANG Aidan;LI Changjun;WU Xia;WANG Yujiang(Petroleum Engineering School,Southivest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500,China;SINOPEC Shengli Oilfield Company,Dongying 257000,China)
出处
《安全与环境工程》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第2期36-43,共8页
Safety and Environmental Engineering
基金
十三五国家科技重大专项项目(2016ZX05028-001-006-01)。
关键词
动设备
失效概率
定量风险评估
FMEA方法
多态模糊BN
石化行业
mechanical equipment
failure probability
quantitative risk assessment
FMEA
multiple-state fuzzy BN
petrochemistry industry
