摘要
本文以经济政策不确定性为出发点,考察宏观经济环境如何影响企业的资产组合配置决策,以期理解微观企业的"脱实向虚"现象。结果显示,经济政策不确定性与固定资产投资显著负相关,并与金融资产投资显著正相关,从而降低实体投资率且加剧实体企业的"金融化"趋势。随后的机制检验发现,未来现金流不确定性和固定资产收益率的解释能力较为有限,企业盈利模式趋于金融渠道的原因可能更多在于流动性需求增加和治理结构转变。
To understand the "real-to-virtual" phenomenon in China, we explore how economic policy uncertainty affects firm’s portfolio choice. Using the semi-annual data of nonfinancial listed companies over 2007—2015, we find that economic policy uncertainty impedes fixed investment and promotes financial assets investment. Specifically, although the volatility of future cash flow increases and the return rate of fixed investment decreases, they perform limited power to explain the significant effects of economic policy uncertainty on firm’s portfolio choice. Our findings also argue that liquidity management and governance structure transformation may be conducive to recognize the financialization of real economy.
作者
刘贯春
刘媛媛
张军
GUANCHUN LIU;YUANYUAN LIU;JUN ZHANG(Sun Yat-sen University;Guangdong University of Foreign Studies;Fudan University)
出处
《经济学（季刊）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第5期65-86,共22页
China Economic Quarterly
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(15ZDA008)
2014年文化名家暨“四个一批”人才项目的资助。
关键词
经济政策不确定性
资产组合配置
金融化
economic policy uncertainty
investment portfolio choice
financialization
