摘要
为了解决油气企业在制定勘探战略、编制勘探规划中存在的依据单一、应变能力不足、预期收益不明等问题,针对传统勘探规划编制过程中涉及的勘探目标评价程度不一,不确定性和风险性较大,勘探规划编制依据不充分、执行与规划偏差大等不足,通过对投资组合理论与方法的研究分析,提出了以投资组合理念指导勘探规划编制的思路,通过应用实践,将期望收益率与风险综合考虑,构建出高回报、低风险的勘探项目组合及序列。研究结果表明:①该组合序列可在优化投资配置、优选勘探目标、预测勘探业绩、指导地质评价工作等方面发挥重要作用;②以投资组合管理理念为指导的勘探规划在中海油的钻探目标组合、风险探井排序、部署调整、滚动规划等方面发挥了较大作用;③引领了投资方向、提高了资金回报率,解决了过去对于高风险目标畏缩不前的勘探现状;④规划理念与勘探成效相辅相成,不仅保障了规划的可实施性,又科学预测了实施效果,保障了油公司可持续高质量的发展。
When formulating exploration strategies and preparing exploration plans,oil and gas enterprises face some prob⁃lems of single basis,insufficient adaptability,and uncertain expected income.In traditional exploration planning,the in⁃volved exploration targets are different in evaluation degree and have high uncertainty and risk,and the planning basis is not sufficient or there is a larger deviation between the implementation and the plan.So,one concept of applying invest⁃ment portfolio to guiding exploration plan was presented after studying and analyzing the theories and methods of invest⁃ment portfolio.Then,through practice on exploration projects,a portfolio sequence with high return and low risk was con⁃structed by considering the expected rate of return and the risks.Results show that(1)this portfolio sequence plays an im⁃portant role in optimizing investment allocation,selecting exploration target,predicting exploration performance,and guid⁃ing geological evaluation;(2)the exploration plan guided by this concept also plays a greater role in CNOOC’s drilling target combination,wildcat well ranking,deployment adjustment,and progressive plan;(3)the portfolio leads an investment direction,improves capital returning rate,and addresses the exploration situations of hanging back in face of high-risk tar⁃gets;and(4)the complementation between planning concept and exploration achievement ensures to implement the plan,predicts an implementation effect scientifically,and ensures a sustainable and high-quality development of oil companies.
作者
马佳
MA Jia(CNOOC Exploration Department,Beijing 100028,China)
出处
《天然气技术与经济》
2021年第2期79-84,共6页
Natural Gas Technology and Economy
基金
国家科技重大专项“中海油油气开发发展战略研究”(编号:2016ZX05016-006-006)。
关键词
投资组合
勘探规划
油气企业
内部收益率
期望货币值
Investment portfolio
Exploration plan
Oil and gas enterprise
Internal rate of return
Expected monetary value
