摘要
既有研究由于忽略城市规模的影响,导致将样本间旅游-经济关系差异视作旅游发展对经济增长影响系数的变化,进而引起对旅游发展与经济增长非线性关系内涵的认识偏差。文章基于50个旅游城市2007—2017年的面板数据,构建门槛回归模型,考察城市规模影响下旅游发展与经济增长的非线性关系。结果表明:(1)城市旅游发展对经济增长的非线性影响事实上是由不同规模城市间旅游业的经济增长效应差异所致,特大城市、大\中城市和小城市分组中不存在旅游发展影响经济增长的高低转换机制;(2)城市规模影响下旅游发展与经济增长非线性关系的内涵是旅游业随着城市规模减小而经济增长效应降低,并不是随着旅游发展水平提升而经济增长效应下降。
Due to the neglect of the influence of city scales,existing studies may result in taking the differences of the relation of tourism and economy among samples as the changes of the coefficients of the impact of tourism development on economic growth,which ends in the incorrect understanding of non-linear relationship of tourism development and economic growth.Based on the panel data of 50 tourism cities from 2007 to 2017,this paper built a threshold regression model,and examined the nonlinear relationship between tourism development and economic growth under the constraint of the threshold variable of city scale.The results show that:(1)The non-linear effect of urban tourism development on economic growth is caused by the difference of economic growth effect of tourism industry among cities of different scales,and there is no high-low mechanism transformation of tourism development affecting economic growth in groups of megacities,large and medium-sized cities and small city;(2)The economic growth effects of tourism decline with the decrease of city scales,not with the promotion of tourism development level.Based on these findings,this paper put forward some suggestions for cities with different sizes to promote economic growth through tourism.
作者
朱海艳
ZHU Haiyan(School of Geography and Tourism,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi’an 710119,China;Department of Management,Yulin college,Yulin 719000,China)
出处
《旅游科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第2期17-29,共13页
Tourism Science
基金
国家社会科学规划项目“消费升级对旅游业发展的驱动机制及区域响应研究”(20BJY204)
陕西省社会科学基金项目“黄河流域陕北民俗文化与乡村旅游融合潜力评价与路径选择”(2020R036)
陕西省教育厅哲学社会科学重点研究基地项目“陕北民俗文化与旅游融合助推榆林乡村振兴的路径研究”(19JZ063)。
关键词
城市规模
旅游发展
经济增长
面板门槛模型
city scale
tourism development
economic development
threshold panel model
