摘要
随着风电装机规模的不断增长,其并网后带来的安全运行和消纳利用问题日益突出,高比例风电接入的功率预测准确性愈发重要。现阶段,风电功率预测在平衡系统电力供应和负荷需求之间发挥了至关重要的作用;未来,风电短期和超短期功率预测在备用市场、现货市场及辅助服务市场中将发挥更大的作用,是风电参与市场交易的重要支撑手段。论文对风电功率预测的技术路线和关键应用进行了全环节综述和阶段性总结,介绍了适用于风电功率预测的数值天气预报关键技术环节,分析了面向不同预测对象的风功率转换模型及技术路线,探讨了不同预测模型的应用场景及性能评价方法。最后从未来应用发展需求的角度,提出了我国风电功率预测精度提升的相关建议。
With the fast development of wind power installation in China, wind power integration capacity constrained by load regulation capability becomes the key problem in power system, and accurate wind power forecasting of high proportion wind power becomes more and more important. At present, wind power forecasting plays a key role in dealing with the challenges of balancing supply and demand in any electricity system. In the future, short-term and ultra-short-term wind power forecasting will play a greater role in standby market, spot market and auxiliary service market, which is an important support means for wind power to participate in market transactions. In this paper, research and periodic summary are illustrated on the roadmaps and applications of wind power forecasting, including the whole process of numeric weather prediction, wind power conversion model, wind power forecasting system applications and evaluation indices of forecasting performance, and the prospects in future technical route are provided.
作者
孙荣富
张涛
和青
徐海翔
SUN Rongfu;ZHANG Tao;HE Qing;XU Haixiang(State Grid Jibei Electric Power Company Limited,Beijing 100054,China;North China Branch of State Grid Corporation of China,Beijing 100053,China;State Grid Corporation of China,Beijing 100031,China)
出处
《高电压技术》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第4期1129-1143,共15页
High Voltage Engineering
基金
国家重点研发计划(2018YFB0904003)。
关键词
风电功率预测
数值天气预报
集合预报
组合预测
概率预测
集群预测
wind power forecasting
numeric weather prediction
ensemble prediction
combined forecasting
probabilistic forecasting
cluster forecasting
