摘要
为分析安徽省夏玉米全生育期涝渍灾害发生的特征,定量化评估涝渍灾害风险程度。利用安徽省48年的气象资料(1971-2018年),采用夏玉米涝渍指数模型,计算分析了安徽省夏玉米涝渍指数的时空特征,并确定了夏玉米涝渍指数等级指标,最后采用灾损风险指数模型得到了安徽省夏玉米产量涝渍灾损风险分布。结果表明:(1)夏玉米全生育期涝渍指数以0.027/10a的速率呈显著上升趋势,其中6月上旬和8月上旬上升趋势最为明显;涝渍指数的空间分布显示其值变幅在0.08~0.38之间,其中大别山区、江南中东部和淮北局部是夏玉米涝渍指数的高值区。(2)建立的夏玉米涝渍灾害等级指标和实际涝渍减产的结果较为一致,其中涝渍等级与实际减产率一致的比例为82.2%。(3)而夏玉米涝渍产量灾损风险分布显示大别山区、江淮东部和江南东部地区是安徽省夏玉米涝渍产量损失的高风险区。研究结果对开展区域农业气象防灾减灾有很好的借鉴意义。
In order to analyze the characteristics of waterlogging disaster of summer maize in Anhui Province,and quantitatively evaluate the risk level of waterlogging disaster,in this paper we use the 48-year meteorological data of Anhui Province(1971-2018),based on the waterlogging index model of summer maize,to calculate the temporal and spatial characteristics of waterlogging disaster and establish the grade index of waterlogging.Finally,through the disaster damage risk index model,we gain the risk distribution of waterlogging-induced yield loss of summer maize.The results show that the waterlogging index in the whole growth period of summer maize increased significantly at a rate of 0.027 per 10 years,and the upward trend was most obvious in early June and early August.The value of waterlogging index is between 0.08 and 0.38,and the high value area of summer maize waterlogging index include the Dabie mountain area,the central and eastern Jiangnan regions and some areas of the Huaibei region.The grade index of waterlogging disaster is relatively unanimous with the actual waterlogging-induced yield reduction,and the proportion of waterlogging grade being consistent with the actual yield reduction rate was 82.2%;The risk distributions of waterlogging-induced yield loss shows that the Dabie mountain and eastern Jianghuai and Jiangnan are high risk areas.The results have a good reference significance for regional agrometeorological disaster prevention and mitigation.
作者
魏忠光
崔修来
孙瑶
王晓东
WEI Zhongguang;CUI Xiulai;SUN Yao;WANG Xiaodong(Haifeng Analysis and Test Technology Co.LTD,Hefei 230031;Yingkou Meteorological Service,Liaoning,Yingkou 115001;Agricultural Meteorological Center,Anhui,Hefei 230031)
出处
《气象科技》
2021年第2期253-259,共7页
Meteorological Science and Technology
基金
潍坊市气象局气象科学技术研究项目“寿光近55年初、终霜日、无霜期变化特征及对农业的影响研究”(2017wfqxkt07)资助。
关键词
安徽
夏玉米
涝渍灾害
风险指数
敏感系数
Anhui
summer maize
waterlogging disaster
yield loss risk
sensitive coefficient
