摘要
目的公共安全事件网络谣言源于一定事实基础,两者之间存在显性或隐性的内在逻辑关系,因此公共安全事件网络谣言与完全凭空捏造的谣言有着本质不同。现有研究成果缺乏针对谣言发展全过程的分析以及线下互动影响的考量,难以实现对不同类型事件网络谣言导控侧重点的确定。方法借鉴网络舆情的发展过程,将网络谣言传播划分为“萌生”→“扩散”→“高潮”→“衰退”→“平息”5个阶段,使用“谣言本体”“发布主体”“传播状况”“外界影响”“治理机制”等指标进行描述。利用随机Petri网构建公共安全事件网络谣言传播仿真模型,继而根据与其同构的马尔科夫链,通过求解相关数学方程分析得到谣言演化的均衡状态与变动规律。结果/结论按公共卫生、自然灾害、事故灾难、社会安全等4种公共事件类别撷取影响较大的网络谣言进行仿真。仿真结果表明,不同类别事件网络谣言的演化要素存在明显差异,调整变动相应演化要素可以实现更为精准有效的谣言导控目的。
The Internet rumors of public security incidents originate from a certain factual basis,and there is an explicit or implicit internal logical relationship between the two.Therefore,the network rumors of public security events are fundamentally different from the rumors fabricated entirely out of thin air.The existing research results lack the analysis of the whole process of rumor development and the consideration of the influence of offline interaction,so it is difficult to determine the focus of Internet rumor guidance and control for different types of incidents.Referring to the development process of Internet public opinion,the evolution of Internet rumors can be divided into five stages:sprouting→spreading→climax→recession→subsiding.The indexes of“rumor noumenon”,“publishing subject”,“communication status”,“external influence”and“governance mechanism”are used to describe the evolution.The stochastic Petri net is used to construct the network rumor evolution model of public security incidents,and then the equilibrium state and change law of rumor evolution are obtained by solving the relevant mathematical equations according to its isomorphic Markov Chain.According to the public health,natural disasters,accident disasters,social security and other four types of public incidents,the network rumors with great influence are selected for evolutionary simulation.The simulation results show that there are obvious differences in the evolution factors of Internet rumors of different types of incidents,and adjusting the corresponding evolution factors can achieve more accurate and effective rumor guidance and control purposes.
作者
苏可馨
胡舫舷
杨润凯
SU Kexin;HU Fangxian;YANG Runkai(Criminal Investigation Police University of China,Shenyang 110035,China;People’s Public Security University of China,Beijing 100038,China)
出处
《中国人民公安大学学报（自然科学版）》
2021年第2期82-93,共12页
Journal of People’s Public Security University of China(Science and Technology)
基金
辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目(L20BXW008)“公共安全事件网络谣言传播方式与导控措施研究”的阶段研究成果。
关键词
公共安全事件
网络谣言
描述指标
随机PETRI网
仿真
演化要素
public security incidents
internet rumors
description index
stochastic petri nets
simulation
evolutionary elements
